698
FXUS64 KFWD 091745
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THANKS TO THE NORTH WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S ACROSS OUR REGION. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE IN PLACE AS
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS FROM THE NORTH.
AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON, PROVIDING ENOUGH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON DURING THE PEAK-HEATING
HOURS. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW, AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL
STAY DRY. ANY SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
NORTH TEXAS AND SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY 10PM LEAVING BEHIND A
TRANQUIL NIGHT. NONE OF THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TOMORROW AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS LOUISIANA. ONCE AGAIN,
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY 11PM TOMORROW, ONCE AGAIN
LEADING TO INSIGNIFICANT WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT.
HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/SUNDAY ONWARD/
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS NEXT WEEK WILL LARGELY BE CENTERED AROUND THE
RISING TEMPERATURES, BRINGING NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD BREAKING HEAT
ACROSS OUR REGION.
PRIOR TO THE HEAT'S ARRIVAL, AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE WILL STALL
OVER LOUISIANA, KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION. ALONG WITH THE NORTH WINDS, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ROLLING IN FROM THE WEST.
OUR UPCOMING HEAT WAVE WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURE
MAKE A 10-15 DEGREE JUMP COMPARED TO MONDAY. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE POINTS AT 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
90TH PERCENTILE, WITH ECMWF EFI AND SHIFT OF TAILS NOW
HIGHLIGHTING WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
BREAK TEMPERATURES RECORDS. GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THIS, THE LATEST FORECAST WILL CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE THE NBM
50%-ILE WITH THE ODDS OF HITTING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK NOW ABOVE
50% GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-35.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE SLIGHT, HOWEVER, STILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN AS MID TO UPPER 90S PREVAIL. OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL
ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS A DRYLINE INCHES EASTWARD INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHORTWAVES RETURN TO OUR REGION.
HERNANDEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR SKIES ARE ONGOING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN D10, HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LOW. IMPACTS
TO AIRPORTS WILL BE LOW AS ANY SHOWER/STORM WILL BE TRANSIENT IN
NATURE.
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, A SIMILAR TREND IS EXPECTED AS STORMS SHIFT
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE WITH MINIMAL WEATHER DISRUPTIONS EXPECTED.
HERNANDEZ
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 59 77 56 76 / 20 10 5 0 5
WACO 77 59 77 56 76 / 20 20 10 10 0
PARIS 75 56 74 54 71 / 20 5 0 5 10
DENTON 75 54 76 51 76 / 20 10 5 0 5
MCKINNEY 75 57 75 54 74 / 20 10 5 0 5
DALLAS 77 60 77 57 76 / 20 10 5 0 5
TERRELL 75 57 76 54 73 / 20 20 5 5 5
CORSICANA 78 59 77 57 74 / 20 20 10 5 5
TEMPLE 79 58 78 56 79 / 10 20 20 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 76 55 77 52 78 / 20 5 0 5 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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