836
FXUS64 KFWD 092351
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
651 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY THIS
EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL LOW RAIN CHANCES IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EAST TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
- RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT ALONG THE GULF
COAST, CAUSING WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
LOCALLY. BROAD ASCENT RESULTED IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL, BUT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL, IT WILL BE A PLEASANT
AND DRY EVENING FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY STAY MORE CLOSELY CONFINED TO THE UPPER LOW
CENTER, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE LOW RAIN CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THOUGH, AND THIS MAY HOLD HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE MID
AND UPPER 70S.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025/
/SUNDAY ONWARD/
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS NEXT WEEK WILL LARGELY BE CENTERED AROUND THE
RISING TEMPERATURES, BRINGING NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD BREAKING HEAT
ACROSS OUR REGION.
PRIOR TO THE HEAT'S ARRIVAL, AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE WILL STALL
OVER LOUISIANA, KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION. ALONG WITH THE NORTH WINDS, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ROLLING IN FROM THE WEST.
OUR UPCOMING HEAT WAVE WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURE
MAKE A 10-15 DEGREE JUMP COMPARED TO MONDAY. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE POINTS AT 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
90TH PERCENTILE, WITH ECMWF EFI AND SHIFT OF TAILS NOW
HIGHLIGHTING WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
BREAK TEMPERATURES RECORDS. GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THIS, THE LATEST FORECAST WILL CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE THE NBM
50%-ILE WITH THE ODDS OF HITTING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK NOW ABOVE
50% GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-35.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE SLIGHT, HOWEVER, STILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN AS MID TO UPPER 90S PREVAIL. OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL
ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS A DRYLINE INCHES EASTWARD INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHORTWAVES RETURN TO OUR REGION.
HERNANDEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ON A DECLINE WITHIN
THE D10 AIRSPACE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH ONLY A 10% CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING. DUE TO SUCH A LOW POTENTIAL, WILL OMIT PRECIPITATION
FROM THE 00Z METROPLEX TAFS AND ONLY SHOW A BRIEF MENTION AT WACO
THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED MID CLOUD COVER WILL BE
PRESENT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITHIN THE 10-15 KFT LAYER, WHILE A
NORTH/NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND AROUND 10 KTS PREVAILS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TAF SITES TOMORROW, AND NONE WILL BE INDICATED IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 59 77 56 76 58 / 10 5 5 5 0
WACO 58 77 57 76 55 / 20 20 5 0 0
PARIS 56 75 55 71 56 / 5 5 10 10 0
DENTON 55 77 51 76 53 / 5 5 5 5 0
MCKINNEY 57 76 53 74 56 / 10 5 5 5 0
DALLAS 60 78 58 76 59 / 10 5 5 5 0
TERRELL 57 77 55 73 56 / 10 10 10 5 0
CORSICANA 60 79 57 74 58 / 20 20 10 5 0
TEMPLE 58 80 55 79 54 / 20 20 5 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 55 78 52 78 52 / 10 5 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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