519
FXUS64 KFWD 100417
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1117 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY SPINNING OVER THE
ARKLATEX LATE THIS EVENING. BROAD WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE RESULTED IN A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED LOW RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. ENJOY THE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS A DRAMATIC WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025/
/SUNDAY ONWARD/
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS NEXT WEEK WILL LARGELY BE CENTERED AROUND THE
RISING TEMPERATURES, BRINGING NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD BREAKING HEAT
ACROSS OUR REGION.
PRIOR TO THE HEAT'S ARRIVAL, AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE WILL STALL
OVER LOUISIANA, KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION. ALONG WITH THE NORTH WINDS, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ROLLING IN FROM THE WEST.
OUR UPCOMING HEAT WAVE WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURE
MAKE A 10-15 DEGREE JUMP COMPARED TO MONDAY. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE POINTS AT 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
90TH PERCENTILE, WITH ECMWF EFI AND SHIFT OF TAILS NOW
HIGHLIGHTING WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
BREAK TEMPERATURES RECORDS. GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THIS, THE LATEST FORECAST WILL CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE THE NBM
50%-ILE WITH THE ODDS OF HITTING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK NOW ABOVE
50% GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-35.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE SLIGHT, HOWEVER, STILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN AS MID TO UPPER 90S PREVAIL. OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL
ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS A DRYLINE INCHES EASTWARD INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHORTWAVES RETURN TO OUR REGION.
HERNANDEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/6Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTH WINDS 5
TO 10 KT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MAJOR AIRPORTS.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 61 78 57 76 58 / 10 0 0 5 0
WACO 60 78 57 76 55 / 20 10 5 5 0
PARIS 58 75 55 69 56 / 5 0 10 20 0
DENTON 57 78 53 76 53 / 5 0 0 5 0
MCKINNEY 58 77 55 74 56 / 10 0 0 5 0
DALLAS 62 79 58 76 59 / 10 0 0 5 0
TERRELL 59 76 56 71 56 / 10 5 10 10 0
CORSICANA 60 76 56 69 58 / 20 10 10 10 0
TEMPLE 59 78 57 75 54 / 20 10 5 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 56 78 53 78 52 / 10 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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