857
FXUS64 KFWD 100818
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
318 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1117 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025/
/OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY SPINNING OVER THE
ARKLATEX LATE THIS EVENING. BROAD WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE RESULTED IN A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED LOW RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. ENJOY THE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS A DRAMATIC WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
AN UPPER LOW OVER LOUISIANA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTING RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CREATE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA STARTING TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST (DUE TO SOUTHWEST,
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING DRYLINE), WHEN
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD BET FOR AREAS WEST
OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20. PROBABILITIES ARE ACTUALLY INCREASING
(70-80% CHANCE) THAT DFW WILL HIT 100 ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS,
DFW'S RECORD HIGH IS A MODEST 95 WHICH IS MORE THAN ATTAINABLE.
WACO'S RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 14 IS 96 WITH A CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
FOR WEDNESDAY OF 100.
THE GREAT BASIN LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING HE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, SHIFTING THE MID/UPPER
RIDGE EAST, PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA,
AND FORCING THE DRYLINE EAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. BOTH BOUNDARIES
WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONVECTION
WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW, HOWEVER, WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
THAN THE EARLY TO MID WEEK LOW, GENERATING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEXT
WEEKEND. BASED ON TIME OF YEAR AND A COARSE LOOK AT THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENT, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EACH OF THESE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS. WE WILL NARROW DOWN THE TIMING,
LOCATIONS AND OTHER SPECIFICS AS BETTER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA
ARRIVES NEXT WEEK.
30
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1117 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025/
/6Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTH WINDS 5
TO 10 KT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MAJOR AIRPORTS.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 57 76 58 81 / 0 0 5 0 0
WACO 78 57 76 55 82 / 10 5 5 0 0
PARIS 75 55 69 56 77 / 0 10 20 0 10
DENTON 78 53 76 53 80 / 0 0 5 0 0
MCKINNEY 77 55 74 55 79 / 0 0 5 0 0
DALLAS 79 58 76 58 81 / 0 0 5 0 0
TERRELL 76 56 71 56 79 / 5 10 10 0 0
CORSICANA 76 56 69 58 81 / 10 10 10 0 0
TEMPLE 78 57 75 54 85 / 10 5 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 78 53 78 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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