457
FXUS64 KFWD 301738
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1238 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-50%) RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
- STORM CHANCES (40-60%) WILL CONTINUE ON A NEARLY DAILY BASIS
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. BY
SATURDAY MORNING, NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY A PLUME OF
SMOKE FROM CANADA INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS,
RESULTING IN HAZY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.
BARNES
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 338 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025/
/SATURDAY ONWARD/
WHILE THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF QUIET AS THE REGION BECOMES
PLANTED ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH,
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY MORNING AND LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND
90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
WITH OUR LOCATION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH,
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. DOWN AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ACROSS TEXAS AS THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO
SOUTH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA, ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN.
A SMALL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE TREKKING SOUTH ALONG THE
BACK OF THE TROUGH OVER THE DAY SATURDAY, WHICH SETS UP A PERFECT
NW-SE MCS SCENARIO FOR THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE
NOCTURNAL MCS, WITH ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY, AND HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A RESULT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT LOCATIONS SO WILL KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR NOW UNTIL MORE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE COVERS THIS PERIOD. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO UNCERTAIN AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MEAGER INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME, BUT MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 40-45 KTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO START THE WEEK. THE RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY BE SHUNTED EAST AS A CUT OFF LOW IN BAJA CALIFORNIA
BECOMES ENMESHED WITHIN A DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND EJECTS
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE QUICK PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BOTH ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE IN
WEST TEXAS AND ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, AND TRACK EAST EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER EACH DAY, WITH THE THREAT
HIGHEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
INTO NORTH TEXAS. EXACT LOCATIONS AND THREATS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
THIS FAR OUT, SO MAKE SURE TO KEEP UPDATED WITH THE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL DETAILS COME.
PRATER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AOB
10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS FALL BELOW 5 KNOTS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO D10 TAF SITES
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN CENTRAL TEXAS/KACT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILDFIRE
SMOKE ORIGINATING FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME REDUCTIONS TO SLANTWISE
VISIBILITY.
BARNES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 64 86 68 86 / 30 0 0 20 30
WACO 80 64 84 67 88 / 20 5 0 5 30
PARIS 79 58 82 65 82 / 10 0 0 20 20
DENTON 79 59 86 65 86 / 20 0 0 30 30
MCKINNEY 80 60 85 65 84 / 30 0 0 20 30
DALLAS 81 64 86 68 87 / 30 0 0 20 30
TERRELL 81 61 84 65 85 / 30 0 0 10 30
CORSICANA 79 64 86 67 87 / 20 0 0 5 30
TEMPLE 81 65 86 67 90 / 20 5 0 5 20
MINERAL WELLS 80 61 87 66 89 / 20 0 0 20 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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