490
FXUS64 KFWD 302301
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
601 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SOME SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A NICE NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, LIGHT NORTH WINDS, AND SOME
PASSING CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE EAST
PACIFIC RESULTING IN THE THICKER CIRRUS TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.
SATURDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
A BIT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID 80S AREAWIDE, ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
WON'T MAKE IT FEEL TOO BAD. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD TAKE THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WHILE THERE WILL INITIALLY BE A MODEST INSTABILITY AXIS IN
PLACE, THIS WILL ERODE WITH TIME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT LEAVING
ONLY SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 158 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025/
/SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STRONGER CORES THAT DEVELOP OR WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE
ABLE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISCRETE. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP,
THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, OUR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SO EACH ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THIS BECOMES MORE APPARENT.
STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
FORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S ON A DAILY BASIS. HUMID MORNINGS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
BARNES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUD
COVER STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE'LL BE WATCHING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO APPROACH THE D10 AIRSPACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 65 86 69 86 70 / 0 0 40 30 5
WACO 64 85 68 89 71 / 0 0 10 30 5
PARIS 59 83 64 80 65 / 0 0 40 20 0
DENTON 59 85 64 85 65 / 0 0 50 30 5
MCKINNEY 60 85 65 84 66 / 0 0 50 30 5
DALLAS 65 87 69 87 70 / 0 0 40 30 5
TERRELL 61 85 65 84 67 / 0 0 30 30 5
CORSICANA 64 86 68 87 70 / 0 0 10 40 5
TEMPLE 65 87 68 90 70 / 0 0 5 30 5
MINERAL WELLS 61 88 66 88 67 / 0 0 30 30 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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