525
FXUS64 KFWD 310611
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
111 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
- DAILY STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK. SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A CLEAR RADAR
SCOPE, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. RH IS ALSO COMFORTABLY LOW FOR THE END OF MAY WITH
DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG IN A FEW PLACES TOWARDS SUNRISE, BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION AND DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY, HOWEVER, AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S AREAWIDE.
OF NOTE, THE HRRR VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE FORECAST SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS SMOKE WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE, IT WILL MAKE SKIES
NOTICEABLY HAZY AT TIMES.
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A RAPID CHANGE FROM OUR BRIEF QUIET
WEATHER TO A VERY ACTIVE WEEK WILL OCCUR AS A SHARP AND INTENSE
H5 JET STREAK DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY EVENING THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH TEXAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT
HIGHER GULF MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE HAD TIME TO RETURN NORTHWARD,
FORECAST CAPE IS ON THE LOW SIDE AT LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. EVEN SO,
DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KNOTS, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7
C/KM, AND A FAIRLY DRY TROPOSPHERE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL - MAINLY FROM THE
METROPLEX NORTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF ON
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-20 ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY. THESE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL
AS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD, BOOSTING MLCAPE TO NEAR
3000 J/KG. AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR EARLY JUNE WITH 0-3KM SRH OVER
200 M2/S2. ALL STORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DIE OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 158 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025/
/SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STRONGER CORES THAT DEVELOP OR WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE
ABLE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISCRETE. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP,
THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, OUR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SO EACH ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THIS BECOMES MORE APPARENT.
STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
FORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S ON A DAILY BASIS. HUMID MORNINGS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
BARNES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS THIS TAF PERIOD WITH
JUST A FEW DIURNAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 14Z, BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS. AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, SHRA/TSRA ARE
LIKELY TO IMPACT METROPLEX AIRPORTS 01/10Z.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 68 87 70 89 74 / 50 30 10 10 10
WACO 67 90 70 90 72 / 10 40 10 10 5
PARIS 64 82 65 85 71 / 50 20 5 5 5
DENTON 65 86 67 89 71 / 60 20 5 10 20
MCKINNEY 65 85 67 87 72 / 50 20 5 5 10
DALLAS 69 88 69 89 74 / 50 30 10 10 10
TERRELL 65 85 67 88 72 / 50 40 5 10 5
CORSICANA 67 87 71 89 73 / 20 40 10 10 5
TEMPLE 67 92 70 93 72 / 5 30 5 10 5
MINERAL WELLS 66 88 68 92 71 / 40 30 10 10 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page