713
FXUS64 KFWD 310817
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
317 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
- DAILY STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK. SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOODING COULD ALSO BECOME A CONCERN MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 111 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025/
/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A CLEAR RADAR
SCOPE, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. RH IS ALSO COMFORTABLY LOW FOR THE END OF MAY WITH
DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG IN A FEW PLACES TOWARDS SUNRISE, BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION AND DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY, HOWEVER, AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S AREAWIDE.
OF NOTE, THE HRRR VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE FORECAST SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS SMOKE WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE, IT WILL MAKE SKIES
NOTICEABLY HAZY AT TIMES.
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A RAPID CHANGE FROM OUR BRIEF QUIET
WEATHER TO A VERY ACTIVE WEEK WILL OCCUR AS A SHARP AND INTENSE
H5 JET STREAK DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY EVENING THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH TEXAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT
HIGHER GULF MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE HAD TIME TO RETURN NORTHWARD,
FORECAST CAPE IS ON THE LOW SIDE AT LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. EVEN SO,
DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KNOTS, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7
C/KM, AND A FAIRLY DRY TROPOSPHERE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL - MAINLY FROM THE
METROPLEX NORTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF ON
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-20 ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY. THESE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL
AS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD, BOOSTING MLCAPE TO NEAR
3000 J/KG. AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR EARLY JUNE WITH 0-3KM SRH OVER
200 M2/S2. ALL STORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DIE OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/MONDAY ONWARD/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY IN
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SUNDAY
RAIN CHANCES. UNFORTUNATELY, RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE
TEMPORARY AS THE RIDGE GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKENING CUT-OFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA BECOMING CAUGHT UP BY A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF
THE RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE RETURN, WITH A DRYLINE SHARPENING WELL TO OUR
WEST. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEAMPLIFY INTO AN OPEN
SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY ON MONDAY, EVENTUALLY EJECTING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. LIFT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE
WELL TO OUR WEST, MOVING TOWARDS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATER IN
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL DEAMPLIFY INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT EJECTS
TO THE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA OVER MIDWEEK.
MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND STALL
ALONG THE RED RIVER, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A ZONE OF MORE FOCUSED
ASCENT BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY, WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY MORNING TIME PERIODS. AS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS,
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS, WITH THE MOST LIKELY
THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT
REMAINS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT WILL BE BETTER DEFINED IN THE
COMING DAYS AS MID AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BEGIN TO COVER
THIS PERIOD. MINOR FLOODING MAY ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE MIDWEEK AS
PWATS BETWEEN 1.5-2" WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. MOST
RECENT NBM AND WPC QPF DATA HIGHLIGHT OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS FOR
1.5-2.5" OF RAINFALL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 5". AS OF RIGHT NOW, EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST TOTALS ARE UNCERTAIN AND WILL
CHANGE WITH FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS, IT MAY BE A GOOD
IDEA TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MIDWEEK FORECAST AS SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLOODING COULD IMPACT PLANS.
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BE PUSHED BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATE THIS WEEK, KEEPING NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN AN UNSTABLE AND
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. ABOVE THE SURFACE, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BECOME PLANTED ACROSS MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS, WITH OUR REGION
ON THE NORTHERN APEX. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK, KEEPING
DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST. THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY LAST EVEN LONGER, HOWEVER, WITH THE
LATEST CPC 8- 14 DAY OUTLOOK FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE WEEKS OF JUNE (JUNE 7-13). WE'LL CONTINUE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, AND WILL GIVE OUT
MORE DETAILS AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.
PRATER
AVIATION
/ISSUED 111 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS THIS TAF PERIOD WITH
JUST A FEW DIURNAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 14Z, BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS. AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, SHRA/TSRA ARE
LIKELY TO IMPACT METROPLEX AIRPORTS 01/10Z.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 86 68 87 70 89 / 0 50 30 10 10
WACO 85 67 90 70 90 / 0 10 40 10 10
PARIS 83 64 82 65 85 / 0 50 20 5 5
DENTON 85 65 86 67 89 / 0 60 20 5 10
MCKINNEY 85 65 85 67 87 / 0 50 20 5 10
DALLAS 87 69 88 69 89 / 0 50 30 10 10
TERRELL 85 65 85 67 88 / 0 50 40 5 10
CORSICANA 85 67 87 71 89 / 0 20 40 10 10
TEMPLE 86 67 92 70 93 / 0 5 30 5 10
MINERAL WELLS 87 66 88 68 92 / 0 40 30 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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