032
FXUS64 KFWD 010020
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
720 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
- DAILY STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. SOME SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EASTWARD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING.
WE'LL BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THESE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A SEMI-ORGANIZED COMPLEX AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION CLOSER TO MORNING. WE'LL HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE WHERE
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO PUSH OFF OF THESE STORMS
AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 INTO CENTRAL TX
WHERE WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO ONLY BE
20-40% THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD
HAVE A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IS
LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE A NUMBER OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
MEMBERS SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE FROM ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN THE METROPLEX EASTWARD TOWARD A
GREENVILLE/CANTON LINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHTLY FOCUSED AREA OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG A
SHARP THETA-E GRADIENT, LIKELY REINFORCED FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
PRETTY LOW, THERE ARE SOME MODEL OUTPUT MARKERS PRESENT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LOW COVERAGE, BUT HIGH IMPACT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION IS AIDED BY A MODEST
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH OPPOSING MID LEVEL
FLOW ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.
OVERNIGHT MUCAPE VALUES > 1500 J/KG, PW'S > 1.8", AND GENERALLY
WEAK WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. THE NAMNEST IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SCENARIO WITH POCKETS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION > 9" INDICATED IN
ITS OUTPUT. WHILE WE DON'T USE THIS OUTPUT DIRECTLY, IT DOES AT
LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND IS SUPPORTED
BY A FEW ADDITIONAL HREF MEMBERS. FOR NOW, WE'LL JUST BE AWARE OF
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION,
AND WE'VE ADDED SOME 30-40% POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025/
UPDATE:
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAD TO BE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FLOOD THREAT WILL TRY TO MATERIALIZE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WELL, AND WILL BE WORTH
WATCHING AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF JUNE, WHICH IS AN ADDED BONUS DESPITE HOW ACTIVE IT'LL BE. THIS
PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY CONCERNS
REGARDING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER DOWN AS WELL, THOUGH WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
REEVES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SUNDAY EVENING.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD OUT OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO STAY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS BUT WE'LL CONTINUE WITH A VCTS
FROM 13-16Z. A FAIRLY STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PUSH OFF
OF THIS CONVECTION AND MAY TEMPORARILY RESULT IN A NORTH-NORTHEAST
WIND THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
WE'LL BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. THERE IS SOME LOW POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 69 87 71 90 74 / 0 30 30 5 10
WACO 68 91 71 91 72 / 0 40 40 5 5
PARIS 63 82 65 85 71 / 10 50 20 5 5
DENTON 65 86 68 90 72 / 0 30 20 5 10
MCKINNEY 66 84 68 88 72 / 5 40 30 5 5
DALLAS 69 88 71 90 74 / 0 30 30 5 5
TERRELL 65 85 69 88 72 / 0 30 30 5 5
CORSICANA 68 88 71 90 73 / 0 40 40 5 5
TEMPLE 67 93 71 93 72 / 0 30 30 5 5
MINERAL WELLS 66 92 69 93 72 / 0 30 20 5 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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