653
FXUS64 KFWD 010607
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
107 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES RETURN THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
- DAILY STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SOME SEVERE STORMS AND
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME, MOST LIKELY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
ALL IS QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH NOTHING ON RADAR, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/70S. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STOUT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND 12Z
OR SO THIS MORNING, THEN CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ON
THE LOW SIDE WITH MUCAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, A STORM OR TWO COULD HAVE DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY, ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-20 AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S, THIS WILL BOOST
MLCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. THEREFORE ANY AFTERNOON STORMS WILL HAVE
A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
EVENING. 0-3KM SRH WILL ALSO BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE UP TO 200
M2/S2 PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE
ALBEIT UNLIKELY.
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT, SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO
MAY POP UP ALONG A MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF PER CAMS.
ALTHOUGH NOTHING SEVERE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP FROM THE METROPLEX SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025/
UPDATE:
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAD TO BE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FLOOD THREAT WILL TRY TO MATERIALIZE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WELL, AND WILL BE WORTH
WATCHING AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF JUNE, WHICH IS AN ADDED BONUS DESPITE HOW ACTIVE IT'LL BE. THIS
PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY CONCERNS
REGARDING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER DOWN AS WELL, THOUGH WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
REEVES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT AIRPORTS THIS TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, VCTS IS EXPECTED AT METROPLEX AIRPORTS BETWEEN 14-16Z
WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND TSRA AT KDFW/KDAL DUE TO TSRA MOVING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE
REACHING KACT, BUT ADDITIONAL VCTS WILL IMPACT THAT AIRPORT THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19-23Z WITH TEMPO TSRA. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
UP TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT AIRPORTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED AT METROPLEX AIRPORTS BETWEEN 14-16Z DUE TO
TSRA OUTFLOW.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 87 71 90 74 90 / 50 20 5 10 20
WACO 92 71 91 72 89 / 40 20 5 5 20
PARIS 82 65 85 71 86 / 30 10 5 5 20
DENTON 87 68 90 72 89 / 50 20 5 10 30
MCKINNEY 85 68 88 72 89 / 60 20 5 5 20
DALLAS 88 71 90 74 91 / 50 20 5 5 20
TERRELL 86 68 88 72 89 / 40 20 5 5 20
CORSICANA 89 71 90 73 91 / 40 20 5 5 10
TEMPLE 93 71 93 72 91 / 30 20 5 5 20
MINERAL WELLS 92 69 93 72 91 / 20 10 5 20 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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