189
FXUS64 KFWD 010835
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES RETURN THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
- DAILY STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SOME SEVERE STORMS AND
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME, MOST LIKELY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 107 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025/
/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
ALL IS QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH NOTHING ON RADAR, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/70S. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STOUT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND 12Z
OR SO THIS MORNING, THEN CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ON
THE LOW SIDE WITH MUCAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, A STORM OR TWO COULD HAVE DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY, ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-20 AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S, THIS WILL BOOST
MLCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. THEREFORE ANY AFTERNOON STORMS WILL HAVE
A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
EVENING. 0-3KM SRH WILL ALSO BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE UP TO 200
M2/S2 PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE
ALBEIT UNLIKELY.
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT, SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO
MAY POP UP ALONG A MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF PER CAMS.
ALTHOUGH NOTHING SEVERE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP FROM THE METROPLEX SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/MONDAY ONWARD/
THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OFF WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TOP
THE REGION, BUT UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. A CUT-OFF
LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A DIGGING WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH, EVENTUALLY DEAMPLIFYING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH ON MONDAY. AS IT
DOES, THE RIDGE OVERTOP THE REGION WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD,
OPENING THE WAY FOR A WEEK OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
OVER MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE OPEN SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. LIFT FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE
OUT IN FAR WEST TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE EVENING HOURS, EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD, WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT DOES. THIS
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER AND STALL IN NORTH TEXAS
OVER MIDWEEK, PROVIDING AN AREA OF INCREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AND ASCENT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT BEFORE IT STALLS, WITH A 75% OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE BIG COUNTRY AND RED RIVER
VALLEY (25% OF MEMBERS PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH).
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SPREAD INCREASED ASCENT OVERTOP THE TWO SURFACE
BOUNDARIES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO
PROMOTE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BOTH NIGHTS, ALONGSIDE A LOWER THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE
EXACT TORNADO THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL. ON TOP OF THE SEVERE THREAT,
PWATS BETWEEN 1.5-2" AND LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WILL PROMOTE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS COULD RAMP UP THE FLOODING THREAT
WITHIN NORTH TEXAS, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT WILL RECEIVE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3" ACROSS OUR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND RED RIVER COUNTIES, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS UP TO AROUND 5" POSSIBLE IN THIS SAME AREA. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, TOTALS OF 0.50-1.5" ARE LIKELY.
THE CAVEAT WITH THE ABOVE TOTALS ARE THAT THEY ARE A BIT MORE
BROAD-BRUSHED AS HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES NOT COVER THIS
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WHERE THE FRONT TRULY ENDS UP COULD SHIFT
THE AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE
AND ADJUST RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE COMING DAYS AS WE GET A BETTER
PICTURE.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, PLACING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE,
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITHIN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EACH DAY THROUGH THIS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE NORTHWARD SHUNT OF THE DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP BEST
RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA GENERALLY WITHIN NORTH TEXAS, WITH MORE
ISOLATED CHANCES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS THE REGION REMAINS IN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, BUT EXACT DETAILS PERTAINING TO THREATS,
LOCATIONS, AND TIMING ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. MAKE SURE TO
KEEP UPDATED WITH THE FORECAST THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS MORE DETAILS
WILL BECOME AVAILABLE.
PRATER
AVIATION
/ISSUED 107 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025/
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT AIRPORTS THIS TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, VCTS IS EXPECTED AT METROPLEX AIRPORTS BETWEEN 14-16Z
WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND TSRA AT KDFW/KDAL DUE TO TSRA MOVING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE
REACHING KACT, BUT ADDITIONAL VCTS WILL IMPACT THAT AIRPORT THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19-23Z WITH TEMPO TSRA. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
UP TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT AIRPORTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED AT METROPLEX AIRPORTS BETWEEN 14-16Z DUE TO
TSRA OUTFLOW.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 87 71 90 73 88 / 50 20 5 5 40
WACO 92 71 90 72 88 / 40 20 5 5 30
PARIS 82 65 85 70 86 / 30 10 5 5 20
DENTON 87 68 90 71 87 / 50 20 5 10 40
MCKINNEY 85 68 88 71 87 / 60 20 5 5 30
DALLAS 88 71 90 74 89 / 50 20 5 5 40
TERRELL 86 68 88 71 88 / 40 20 10 5 20
CORSICANA 89 71 89 73 89 / 40 20 5 0 20
TEMPLE 93 71 92 72 90 / 30 20 0 5 30
MINERAL WELLS 92 69 92 71 88 / 20 10 5 20 50
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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