863
FXUS64 KFWD 011811
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
111 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
- DAILY STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SOME SEVERE STORMS AND
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME, MOST LIKELY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH MONDAY EVENING/
ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE DUE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY
RIDING THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS A SNEAK PEAK
FOR WHAT WE CAN EXPECT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT FEATURES MUCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF
3,000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 35-40 KNOTS. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS 3-4 PM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE STALLED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFTOVER BY EARLIER CONVECTION. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A LOW TORNADO
THREAT GIVEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. SOME CAMS DO INDICATE THAT ANOTHER CLUSTER DEVELOPS
ALONG THIS FEATURE, WHICH MAY INCREASE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF
COLD POOLS MATURE AND ORGANIZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST STORM MOTION, WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING OUT
OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO
ISSUE A WATCH HERE IN A COUPLE HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT WE SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY, THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, WITH A MOSTLY QUIET DAY IN STORE TO KICK OFF THE START OF
THE WEEK. WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS THE DRYLINE TO OUR
WEST KICKS BACK INTO GEAR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY IF THESE STORMS PERSIST
LONG ENOUGH TO REACH OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH TOMORROW.
REEVES
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/MONDAY NIGHT ONWARDS/
CONVECTION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAINTENANCE OF THESE STORMS. THEY MAY END UP
REMAINING CONFINED CLOSE TO THE DRYLINE, WHICH WILL KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. IF THESE STORMS MANAGE
TO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST, THE MAIN THREATS WOULD INCLUDE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THANKS TO THE DRYLINE OFF
TO OUR WEST AND A STALLED COLD FRONT THAT WILL DESCEND SOUTH
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE TWO FEATURES COULD LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS CONTINUED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A LOW BUT
NON-ZERO THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO DEPENDING ON STORM
ORGANIZATION AND STORM MOTION. HIGHER PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2.5
INCHES WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION SETS UP, WITH
BETTER REFINEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING DAYS. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS APPROACHING 3 TO 5 INCHES NEAR THE RED RIVER.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT USUALLY BRINGS ABOUT OUR HOT AND DRY
SUMMERS WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
BUT WILL INSTEAD SLIDE MORE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR ODDS THAT WE
WILL SEE A CONTINUED STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF JUNE WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
REEVES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...LOW TSRA/VCTS POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON, VARIABLE WINDS.
THE MORNING CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS PUSHED SOUTH/EAST
WHILE CONTINUING AN OVERALL DISSIPATION TREND. A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS SET UP JUST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF D10, WHICH WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE TSRA WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF STORMS
SEEMS LOW, IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLS. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH WACO THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS.
REEVES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 87 71 90 74 88 / 40 20 5 5 30
WACO 91 70 90 72 88 / 30 30 5 0 20
PARIS 82 65 85 71 86 / 30 5 10 5 10
DENTON 87 68 91 72 87 / 40 10 5 10 40
MCKINNEY 85 68 89 72 87 / 50 10 10 5 30
DALLAS 88 71 90 74 88 / 40 20 5 5 30
TERRELL 86 68 89 71 87 / 40 20 5 0 20
CORSICANA 89 71 90 73 89 / 40 20 5 0 20
TEMPLE 93 70 92 72 90 / 20 20 0 0 20
MINERAL WELLS 92 69 93 72 87 / 20 10 5 20 50
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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