002
FXUS64 KFWD 012220
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
520 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- DAILY STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT WITHIN AN AXIS OF HIGH THETA-E AIR REINFORCED BY AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EXTENDING BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD MINERAL WELLS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE LOWER 70S. FOCUSED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AIDED
BY WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW INSTANCES OF
LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 20-30% FAVORING AREAS JUST
SOUTH OF I-20 INTO CENTRAL TX.
LATER TONIGHT, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SOME LOW POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AS THE AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ASCENT IS AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE I-45 CORRIDOR DRAPED
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WHILE THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT, WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION WITHIN A HIGH PW (>1.8") ENVIRONMENT. THIS MAY RESULT
IN A FEW AREAS OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE METROPLEX INTO EAST
TEXAS. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT CERTAIN, WE'LL MAINTAIN 20-30%
POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THESE AREAS.
RIDGING SHOULD BRIEFLY TAKE HOLD ON MONDAY RESULTING IN RAIN FREE,
BUT WARM CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE
INTO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 111 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025/
/MONDAY NIGHT ONWARDS/
CONVECTION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAINTENANCE OF THESE STORMS. THEY MAY END UP
REMAINING CONFINED CLOSE TO THE DRYLINE, WHICH WILL KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. IF THESE STORMS MANAGE
TO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST, THE MAIN THREATS WOULD INCLUDE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THANKS TO THE DRYLINE OFF
TO OUR WEST AND A STALLED COLD FRONT THAT WILL DESCEND SOUTH
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE TWO FEATURES COULD LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS CONTINUED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A LOW BUT
NON-ZERO THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO DEPENDING ON STORM
ORGANIZATION AND STORM MOTION. HIGHER PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2.5
INCHES WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION SETS UP, WITH
BETTER REFINEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING DAYS. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS APPROACHING 3 TO 5 INCHES NEAR THE RED RIVER.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT USUALLY BRINGS ABOUT OUR HOT AND DRY
SUMMERS WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
BUT WILL INSTEAD SLIDE MORE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR ODDS THAT WE
WILL SEE A CONTINUED STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF JUNE WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
REEVES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE AREAS, VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH CLOUDS SCT060
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A PAIR OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF
THE METROPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WE'VE ADJUSTED THE VCTS BACK TO BETWEEN 1-4Z BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN THE SURFACE MOISTURE/BOUNDARY, BUT COVERAGE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SCATTERED. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT RIGHT NOW THESE LOOK
TO STAY EAST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS.
VFR WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KT.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 70 90 74 88 70 / 20 20 5 30 70
WACO 70 90 72 88 72 / 40 5 0 20 40
PARIS 65 85 71 86 70 / 10 10 0 10 60
DENTON 68 90 72 87 66 / 20 10 10 40 70
MCKINNEY 68 88 72 87 70 / 20 20 5 30 70
DALLAS 70 91 73 88 71 / 20 20 5 30 70
TERRELL 68 89 72 87 70 / 30 20 0 20 50
CORSICANA 70 90 73 89 73 / 30 20 0 20 40
TEMPLE 70 92 72 90 72 / 40 0 0 20 30
MINERAL WELLS 69 93 72 87 65 / 20 5 20 50 70
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ116-117-129>133-141-143>147-157>162-174-175.
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