124
FXUS64 KFWD 021040
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
540 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST
TEXAS. OTHERWISE, QUIET BUT HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S
- FREQUENT STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. SOME SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 103 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025/
/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AFTER A STORMY SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, ACTIVITY HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
LIMESTONE AND FREESTONE COUNTIES. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A STORM COULD POP UP OVERNIGHT EAST OF I-35 AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY UNSTABLE, BUT NOTHING STRONG OR SEVERE
IS ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, TODAY LOOKS DRY AND QUIET ALBEIT HOT
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID 80S UP TO MID 90S WEST. DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL QUITE HUMID,
ALTHOUGH SOUTH WINDS TO 20 MPH WILL HELP IN THAT REGARD. TONIGHT,
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS, THEN SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS WESTERN PARTS
OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE INTO OUR CWA, SO WILL KEEP POPS
LOW.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 339 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025/
/TUESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/
BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FROM OUT WEST WILL
HAVE LIKELY REACHED OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING AS IT ENTERS MORE OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. WELL TO
OUR NORTH A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES,
SHUNTING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THOUGH KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA DURING THE
DAY. OVER THE AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
IN THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA, EITHER
ORIGINATING OFF THE DRYLINE AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE BIG
COUNTRY OR NEAR A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING
CONVECTION. THESE AFTERNOON STORMS WOULD INITIALLY BE DISCRETE,
BUT WILL QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO MORE MESSY CLUSTERS WITH A
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT WITH THESE
AFTERNOON STORMS REMAINS LOW, AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SRH WILL BE
UNFAVORABLE.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, THEY
WILL INITIALLY BE DISCRETE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS, WITH A TERTIARY TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER, SINCE THE 0-6 KM
WIND VECTOR IS A BIT MORE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH, TRANSITIONING THE PRIMARY THREAT TO
DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE
SEVERE RISK DECREASING THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS EAST AND EASTERN
CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY, WHERE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON TOP OF THE SEVERE THREAT, THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER THIS PERIOD, PARTICULARLY
FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS. LONG, SKINNY
CAPE PROFILES AND PWATS NEAR 2" WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE PLACES MOST LIKELY STORM TOTALS OF AROUND
1.5" TO 2.5" IN OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
LIGHTER TOTALS ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4-5" MAY ALSO
OCCUR IN OUR NORTHWEST. THE MAJORITY OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
FALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, SO THIS WILL BE THE
TIME FRAME TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO STALL MUCH FURTHER SOUTH, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90. MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO WILL NUDGE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS MID-LATE THIS WEEK, PUTTING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND FORCING THE
STALLED BOUNDARY TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THE
INCREASED MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALSO SHARPEN THE DRYLINE IN FAR
WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, KEEPING DAILY
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. STORMS WILL LIKELY ORIGINATE FROM THE DRYLINE AND MOVE
EAST, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
NONETHELESS, WE WILL KEEP LOW-END POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE EXACT EXTENT OF THIS THREAT IS
UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE MID 80S AND 90S BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WARM AND HUMID
OVERNIGHTS.
PRATER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CURRENT SHRA EAST OF THE
METROPLEX ARE EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF AIRPORTS, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 11 KNOTS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE UP TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 90 73 88 70 81 / 10 5 40 80 40
WACO 90 72 88 70 81 / 5 0 30 60 50
PARIS 86 71 86 69 81 / 10 5 20 70 60
DENTON 90 72 87 65 80 / 5 10 50 80 40
MCKINNEY 89 72 87 68 81 / 10 5 30 80 50
DALLAS 91 74 88 70 82 / 10 5 40 80 50
TERRELL 88 72 88 70 83 / 10 5 20 60 50
CORSICANA 89 72 88 73 85 / 10 5 20 50 50
TEMPLE 92 72 90 72 85 / 5 0 30 50 50
MINERAL WELLS 93 72 88 65 80 / 5 20 60 80 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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