753
FXUS64 KFWD 021758
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1258 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET BUT HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S
- STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. SOME SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS ONGOING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THIS SUBSIDENT AREA
WILL HELP KEEP MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS PRECIPITATION FREE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE SHIFTING RIDGE, HOWEVER, WILL
LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S-LOWER 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
MID 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SUFFICIENT
FORCING ALONG THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS
WELL WEST OF OUR REGION. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING TOWARDS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN THE STORM'S
DISPLACEMENT FROM BOTH MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH OUR REGION.
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
AT OR BELOW 20% THROUGH LATE MORNING HOURS. BY THE AFTERNOON, A
DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN JUST WEST OF OUR REGION AS A MID-LEVEL
THETA-E PLUME MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL INCREASE STORM CHANCES
WEST OF I-35, MAINLY JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. HIGH LCLS,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO NOT ONLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT, BUT ALSO A DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. AFTERNOON STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST AND
APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO 7-8PM IF THEY SURVIVE THE
EASTWARD TRIP. OVERALL, STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.
HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 339 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025/
/TUESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/
BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FROM OUT WEST WILL
HAVE LIKELY REACHED OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING AS IT ENTERS MORE OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. WELL TO
OUR NORTH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES,
SHUNTING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THOUGH KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA DURING THE
DAY. OVER THE AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
IN THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA, EITHER
ORIGINATING OFF THE DRYLINE AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE BIG
COUNTRY OR NEAR A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING
CONVECTION. THESE AFTERNOON STORMS WOULD INITIALLY BE DISCRETE,
BUT WILL QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO MORE MESSY CLUSTERS WITH A
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT WITH THESE
AFTERNOON STORMS REMAINS LOW, AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SRH WILL BE
UNFAVORABLE.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, THEY
WILL INITIALLY BE DISCRETE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS, WITH A TERTIARY TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER, SINCE THE 0-6 KM
WIND VECTOR IS A BIT MORE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH, TRANSITIONING THE PRIMARY THREAT TO
DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE
SEVERE RISK DECREASING THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS EAST AND EASTERN
CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY, WHERE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON TOP OF THE SEVERE THREAT, THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER THIS PERIOD, PARTICULARLY
FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS. LONG, SKINNY
CAPE PROFILES AND PWATS NEAR 2" WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE PLACES MOST LIKELY STORM TOTALS OF AROUND
1.5" TO 2.5" IN OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
LIGHTER TOTALS ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4-5" MAY ALSO
OCCUR IN OUR NORTHWEST. THE MAJORITY OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
FALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, SO THIS WILL BE THE
TIME FRAME TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO STALL MUCH FURTHER SOUTH, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90. MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO WILL NUDGE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS MID-LATE THIS WEEK, PUTTING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND FORCING THE
STALLED BOUNDARY TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THE
INCREASED MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALSO SHARPEN THE DRYLINE IN FAR
WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, KEEPING DAILY
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. STORMS WILL LIKELY ORIGINATE FROM THE DRYLINE AND MOVE
EAST, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
NONETHELESS, WE WILL KEEP LOW-END POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE EXACT EXTENT OF THIS THREAT IS
UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE MID 80S AND 90S BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WARM AND HUMID
OVERNIGHTS.
PRATER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL
TEXAS TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST, GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW 15 KTS.
HEADING INTO SUNRISE TUESDAY, AN MVFR DECK WILL DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTH AND SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY,
MVFR WILL ARRIVE IN WACO CLOSER TO 09Z, FOLLOWED BY THE D10 TAFS
CLOSER TO 11Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST CYCLE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CLOSER TO 16Z.
HERNANDEZ
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 90 74 89 69 82 / 10 5 30 70 30
WACO 90 73 89 72 82 / 10 0 20 40 40
PARIS 86 71 86 69 81 / 10 5 10 70 60
DENTON 90 71 88 65 80 / 10 5 40 80 30
MCKINNEY 89 73 88 68 82 / 5 5 20 80 40
DALLAS 91 74 89 70 83 / 10 5 20 70 40
TERRELL 89 71 88 70 84 / 10 5 10 60 50
CORSICANA 89 74 89 73 85 / 10 5 10 40 40
TEMPLE 92 73 90 72 85 / 0 0 20 40 40
MINERAL WELLS 93 73 89 64 80 / 5 10 50 80 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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