235
FXUS64 KFWD 021905
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
205 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET BUT HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S
- STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. SOME SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1258 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025/
/THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS ONGOING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THIS SUBSIDENT AREA
WILL HELP KEEP MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS PRECIPITATION FREE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE SHIFTING RIDGE, HOWEVER, WILL
LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S-LOWER 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
MID 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SUFFICIENT
FORCING ALONG THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS
WELL WEST OF OUR REGION. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING TOWARDS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN THE STORM'S
DISPLACEMENT FROM BOTH MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH OUR REGION.
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
AT OR BELOW 20% THROUGH LATE MORNING HOURS. BY THE AFTERNOON, A
DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN JUST WEST OF OUR REGION AS A MID-LEVEL
THETA-E PLUME MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL INCREASE STORM CHANCES
WEST OF I-35, MAINLY JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. HIGH LCLS,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO NOT ONLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT, BUT ALSO A DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. AFTERNOON STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST AND
APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO 7-8PM IF THEY SURVIVE THE
EASTWARD TRIP. OVERALL, STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.
HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD/
AS DRYLINE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WANES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF OKLAHOMA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, COUPLED WITH AN
APPROACHING JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE, WILL MAXIMIZE
ELEVATED FORCING FOR ASCENT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS A MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS.
THERMODYNAMICALLY, ABOUT 2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO TAP INTO AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. STORM
INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA, CLOSER TO
WICHITA FALLS. BY THE TIME THE STORMS ARRIVE TO
MONTAGUE/JACK/YOUNG COUNTY, STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE CONGEALED INTO
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. SURGING LINE SEGMENTS APPEAR LIKELY
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT,
FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL BE A LOW TORNADO POTENTIAL,
MAINLY ALONG ANY NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED LINE SEGMENT AS THE 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTORS ARE DUE EAST. THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING IF ANY ONE LOCATION EXPERIENCES A PROLONGED HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS, HOWEVER, THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. AS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST, THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MCS WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE GULF COAST, THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION, WEST TO EAST TRAVERSING
SHORTWAVES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN OK
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW STORMS CLIPPING AREAS NORTH OF
I-20 THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
DRYLINE CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD. FOR NOW, COVERAGE WILL REMAIN CAPPED AT 20%.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WEST TO EAST SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. LOOKING BEYOND
THE NEXT 7 DAYS, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR MCSS
TO ARRIVE IN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT WEEK.
HERNANDEZ
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1258 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL
TEXAS TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST, GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW 15 KTS.
HEADING INTO SUNRISE TUESDAY, AN MVFR DECK WILL DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTH AND SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY,
MVFR WILL ARRIVE IN WACO CLOSER TO 09Z, FOLLOWED BY THE D10 TAFS
CLOSER TO 11Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST CYCLE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CLOSER TO 16Z.
HERNANDEZ
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 74 89 69 82 72 / 5 30 70 30 10
WACO 73 89 72 82 72 / 0 20 40 40 5
PARIS 71 86 69 81 70 / 5 10 70 60 5
DENTON 71 88 65 80 68 / 5 40 80 30 10
MCKINNEY 73 88 68 82 69 / 5 20 80 40 10
DALLAS 74 89 70 83 72 / 5 20 70 40 10
TERRELL 71 88 70 84 70 / 5 10 60 50 5
CORSICANA 74 89 73 85 73 / 5 10 40 40 5
TEMPLE 73 90 72 85 71 / 0 20 40 40 5
MINERAL WELLS 73 89 64 80 68 / 10 50 80 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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