633
FXUS64 KFWD 022325
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THANKS TO
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. FARTHER
WEST, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
TEXAS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC FRONT WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL
ASCENT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF
THESE LATE NIGHT STORMS MAY CLIP OUR FAR WEST/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET.
AS THE SHORTWAVE SPREADS INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT
AND DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN TO OUR WEST. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF
TO OUR NORTHWEST INITIALLY. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON, BUT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH SOUTH, WE'LL
SEE STORMS MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, BUT THE WHOLE
COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE AT A FAIRLY GOOD CLIP PRECLUDING THE
NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH. HIGHEST STORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
STORMS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL TX INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 205 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025/
/TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD/
AS DRYLINE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WANES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF OKLAHOMA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, COUPLED WITH AN
APPROACHING JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE, WILL MAXIMIZE
ELEVATED FORCING FOR ASCENT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS A MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS.
THERMODYNAMICALLY, ABOUT 2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO TAP INTO AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. STORM
INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA, CLOSER TO
WICHITA FALLS. BY THE TIME THE STORMS ARRIVE TO
MONTAGUE/JACK/YOUNG COUNTY, STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE CONGEALED INTO
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. SURGING LINE SEGMENTS APPEAR LIKELY
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT,
FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL BE A LOW TORNADO POTENTIAL,
MAINLY ALONG ANY NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED LINE SEGMENT AS THE 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTORS ARE DUE EAST. THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING IF ANY ONE LOCATION EXPERIENCES A PROLONGED HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS, HOWEVER, THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. AS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST, THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MCS WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE GULF COAST, THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION, WEST TO EAST TRAVERSING
SHORTWAVES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN OK
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW STORMS CLIPPING AREAS NORTH OF
I-20 THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
DRYLINE CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD. FOR NOW, COVERAGE WILL REMAIN CAPPED AT 20%.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WEST TO EAST SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. LOOKING BEYOND
THE NEXT 7 DAYS, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR MCSS
TO ARRIVE IN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT WEEK.
HERNANDEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION NOW BUT BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AROUND MIDDAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN
TURN TO THE WEST AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND IMPACT THE MAJOR AIRPORTS IN THE
9 PM TO MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 74 89 70 82 72 / 5 10 90 30 10
WACO 73 88 71 82 72 / 0 5 80 40 5
PARIS 71 86 70 81 70 / 0 0 80 60 5
DENTON 73 89 65 80 68 / 5 30 90 30 10
MCKINNEY 73 88 68 82 69 / 5 10 90 40 10
DALLAS 74 90 70 83 72 / 5 10 90 40 10
TERRELL 72 88 70 84 70 / 5 0 80 50 5
CORSICANA 74 89 73 85 73 / 0 0 60 40 5
TEMPLE 73 90 73 85 71 / 0 5 70 40 5
MINERAL WELLS 73 89 65 80 68 / 10 50 90 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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