227
FXUS64 KFWD 030554
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1254 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEST OF I-35 THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WEST
TEXAS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN CIN WILL KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY RELATIVELY WEAK AND LIMITED IN COVERAGE, HOWEVER SUPPORT
FROM A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY PUSH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
FAR EAST AS THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK. SOME HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY TOWARD THE I-35
CORRIDOR LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BECOMES UNCAPPED BY MIDDAY. THERE IS
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING WITH NONE OF THE ACTIVITY
BEING ROOTED TO ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES OR SOURCES OF LIFT OTHER
THAN MODEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. NONETHELESS, WE WILL BE PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE STORMS AS THEY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW.
GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS TO OUR WEST AND A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF
THESE BOUNDARIES, BREEZY SOUTH FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL SPRAWL OVER MUCH OF THE
WARM SECTOR AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG THE
DRYLINE JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE 4PM-9PM TIME FRAME AND OFFER PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT
ON THE LOWER END. HOWEVER, A RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL WOULD BE ABLE
TO MAXIMIZE THE 0-1KM SRH AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
ISOLATED STORMS NEARER THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS
WELL AS THE REGION REMAINS UNCAPPED AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODEST ASCENT PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH TEXAS GENERALLY AFTER 10-11PM TOMORROW NIGHT. THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY DEPEND UPON THE PRECEDING
MORNING/AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
A COMPLEX OF STORMS PUSHING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE OF STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY BOWING
SEGMENTS. HOWEVER, THE MORE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE
LINE AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MAY KEEP THIS POTENTIAL MORE ISOLATED AND CONSTRAINED TO OUR
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO PICK UP 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED, 10% COVERAGE OF
3+ INCH TOTALS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE LIMITED TO OUR BRAZOS VALLEY AND EAST TEXAS COUNTIES AS
THE COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
LANGFELD
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 205 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025/
/TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD/
AS DRYLINE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WANES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF OKLAHOMA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, COUPLED WITH AN
APPROACHING JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE, WILL MAXIMIZE
ELEVATED FORCING FOR ASCENT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS A MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS.
THERMODYNAMICALLY, ABOUT 2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO TAP INTO AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. STORM
INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA, CLOSER TO
WICHITA FALLS. BY THE TIME THE STORMS ARRIVE TO
MONTAGUE/JACK/YOUNG COUNTY, STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE CONGEALED INTO
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. SURGING LINE SEGMENTS APPEAR LIKELY
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT,
FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL BE A LOW TORNADO POTENTIAL,
MAINLY ALONG ANY NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED LINE SEGMENT AS THE 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTORS ARE DUE EAST. THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING IF ANY ONE LOCATION EXPERIENCES A PROLONGED HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS, HOWEVER, THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. AS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST, THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MCS WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE GULF COAST, THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION, WEST TO EAST TRAVERSING
SHORTWAVES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN OK
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW STORMS CLIPPING AREAS NORTH OF
I-20 THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
DRYLINE CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD. FOR NOW, COVERAGE WILL REMAIN CAPPED AT 20%.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WEST TO EAST SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. LOOKING BEYOND
THE NEXT 7 DAYS, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR MCSS
TO ARRIVE IN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT WEEK.
HERNANDEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE A
SURGE OF MVFR STRATUS APPROACHES KACT AROUND ~10Z AND THE
METROPLEX TERMINALS AROUND ~12Z. ANY LINGERING CIGS WILL SCATTER
AND LIFT BY 16Z-17Z MIDDAY TUESDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH FLOW AT
15-25 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE METROPLEX TOWARD THE
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. TSRA IMPACTS ARE MOST PROBABLE IN THE
04Z-08Z TIMEFRAME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND
A TEMPO GROUP WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN FUTURE TAF UPDATES. WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EARLIER TUESDAY EVENING WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A VCTS ADDITION
AROUND 21Z-22Z (WILL EXCLUDE THIS FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES).
LANGFELD
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 71 81 72 88 74 / 70 20 10 10 10
WACO 72 82 72 88 73 / 50 40 5 5 0
PARIS 70 82 70 84 71 / 60 50 5 20 5
DENTON 67 79 68 88 71 / 80 20 10 20 10
MCKINNEY 70 81 69 87 72 / 70 30 10 10 10
DALLAS 72 82 72 88 74 / 60 30 10 10 10
TERRELL 71 83 70 88 72 / 60 40 5 10 5
CORSICANA 73 85 73 90 74 / 40 40 5 5 5
TEMPLE 73 85 71 91 72 / 40 30 5 5 0
MINERAL WELLS 65 79 68 88 71 / 70 10 10 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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