686
FXUS64 KFWD 030829
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
329 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEST OF I-35 THIS MORNING.
- MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1254 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025/
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WEST
TEXAS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN CIN WILL KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY RELATIVELY WEAK AND LIMITED IN COVERAGE, HOWEVER SUPPORT
FROM A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY PUSH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
FAR EAST AS THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK. SOME HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY TOWARD THE I-35
CORRIDOR LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BECOMES UNCAPPED BY MIDDAY. THERE IS
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING WITH NONE OF THE ACTIVITY
BEING ROOTED TO ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES OR SOURCES OF LIFT OTHER
THAN MODEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. NONETHELESS, WE WILL BE PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE STORMS AS THEY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW.
GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS TO OUR WEST AND A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF
THESE BOUNDARIES, BREEZY SOUTH FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL SPRAWL OVER MUCH OF THE
WARM SECTOR AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG THE
DRYLINE JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE 4PM-9PM TIME FRAME AND OFFER PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT
ON THE LOWER END. HOWEVER, A RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL WOULD BE ABLE
TO MAXIMIZE THE 0-1KM SRH AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
ISOLATED STORMS NEARER THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS
WELL AS THE REGION REMAINS UNCAPPED AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODEST ASCENT PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH TEXAS GENERALLY AFTER 10-11PM TOMORROW NIGHT. THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY DEPEND UPON THE PRECEDING
MORNING/AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
A COMPLEX OF STORMS PUSHING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE OF STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY BOWING
SEGMENTS. HOWEVER, THE MORE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE
LINE AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MAY KEEP THIS POTENTIAL MORE ISOLATED AND CONSTRAINED TO OUR
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO PICK UP 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED, 10% COVERAGE OF
3+ INCH TOTALS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE LIMITED TO OUR BRAZOS VALLEY AND EAST TEXAS COUNTIES AS
THE COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
LANGFELD
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
40-45KT H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN AN MCS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THAT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO NORTH
TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, APPEARS ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
BE LIMITED BUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. AFTER THE
MORNING ACTIVITY, THE REST OF THURSDAY INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY LOOKS
DRY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS. HOWEVER, NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE
EDGE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES IN PLACE
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE IN THE PANHANDLE COULD MAKE A RUN FOR PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ARRIVES OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GETS SQUASHED SOUTHWARD AND FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT, WILL KEEP LOW RAIN
CHANCES IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
LOOKS TO STAY QUITE ACTIVE WITH FREQUENT SHORTWAVES PASSING BY.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1254 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE A
SURGE OF MVFR STRATUS APPROACHES KACT AROUND ~10Z AND THE
METROPLEX TERMINALS AROUND ~12Z. ANY LINGERING CIGS WILL SCATTER
AND LIFT BY 16Z-17Z MIDDAY TUESDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH FLOW AT
15-25 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE METROPLEX TOWARD THE
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. TSRA IMPACTS ARE MOST PROBABLE IN THE
04Z-08Z TIMEFRAME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND
A TEMPO GROUP WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN FUTURE TAF UPDATES. WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EARLIER TUESDAY EVENING WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A VCTS ADDITION
AROUND 21Z-22Z (WILL EXCLUDE THIS FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES).
LANGFELD
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 89 71 81 72 88 / 20 70 20 10 10
WACO 89 72 82 71 88 / 20 50 40 5 5
PARIS 87 70 82 70 85 / 10 60 50 5 20
DENTON 89 67 79 67 87 / 30 80 20 10 20
MCKINNEY 88 70 81 70 87 / 20 70 30 10 20
DALLAS 90 72 82 72 88 / 20 60 30 10 10
TERRELL 88 71 83 70 88 / 10 60 40 5 10
CORSICANA 90 73 85 73 90 / 10 40 40 5 10
TEMPLE 90 73 85 71 92 / 20 40 30 5 5
MINERAL WELLS 89 65 79 68 89 / 40 70 10 10 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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