145
FXUS64 KFWD 031759
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1259 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS, WITH A
LOW BUT NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT.
- WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW WITH THIS ROUND.
- LOW STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THIS MORNING'S SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY
EXITED THE AREA OR DISSIPATED ENTIRELY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO (AROUND
20-30%), AND ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A
SEVERE THREAT. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AS SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE CWA. TOWERING
CUMULUS IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED TO OUR WEST ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY, SO WE'LL BE WATCHING THIS AREA CLOSELY FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE WITH THIS ROUND OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A LOW BUT
NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT.
OUR NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE
DISCRETE BUT WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR PERHAPS A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST WITH ANY INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS, BUT DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY HAZARD ONCE ANY CLUSTERS/LINE DEVELOPS,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION AND
EXPECTED STORM MOTION, THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW WITH THIS
ROUND OF STORMS. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST
WITH ANY RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
THE LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND 20-40%. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOWER WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AS WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL MAKE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS RATHER UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, WE
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SMALL
HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
SOUTH/EAST OF THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS.
BARNES
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025/
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
40-45KT H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN AN MCS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THAT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO NORTH
TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, APPEARS ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
BE LIMITED BUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. AFTER THE
MORNING ACTIVITY, THE REST OF THURSDAY INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY LOOKS
DRY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS. HOWEVER, NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE
EDGE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES IN PLACE
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE IN THE PANHANDLE COULD MAKE A RUN FOR PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ARRIVES OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GETS SQUASHED SOUTHWARD AND FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT, WILL KEEP LOW RAIN
CHANCES IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
LOOKS TO STAY QUITE ACTIVE WITH FREQUENT SHORTWAVES PASSING BY.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS...
THE FIRST BEING EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE SECOND BEING OVERNIGHT.
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOWIE CORNERPOST WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CURRENT TAFS FOR D10 TERMINALS ADVERTISE VCTS
BEGINNING AT 00Z, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF STORMS (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 22-23Z). LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE
TERMINALS WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS, WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT D10
TERMINALS BETWEEN 03-08Z AND KACT BETWEEN 05-09Z. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY OF THE STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT, WITH
THE LARGE HAIL THREAT EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST WITH THE FIRST ROUND
OF STORMS.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 11-15Z, BUT CONFIDENCE WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NORTH WIND
SHIFT TO THE METROPLEX AROUND 13-15Z AND KACT AROUND 17-19Z
WEDNESDAY, BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 8 KNOTS OR LESS.
BARNES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 89 70 81 72 88 / 40 70 20 10 10
WACO 89 72 83 71 88 / 20 70 30 5 5
PARIS 87 69 82 70 85 / 20 70 50 5 20
DENTON 89 67 81 67 87 / 50 80 20 10 20
MCKINNEY 88 69 81 70 87 / 40 70 30 10 20
DALLAS 90 72 82 72 88 / 40 70 30 10 10
TERRELL 89 70 83 70 88 / 30 70 30 5 10
CORSICANA 90 73 85 73 90 / 20 60 30 5 10
TEMPLE 90 73 85 71 92 / 30 60 30 5 5
MINERAL WELLS 89 65 81 68 89 / 60 90 10 10 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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