177
FXUS64 KFWD 040845
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1238 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025/
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MIDNIGHT,
ACCOMPANIED BY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREATS AS WELL AS
LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. CENTRAL TEXAS
POSSESS THE MAIN STRONG/SEVERE RISK FOR THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS WHERE
50-60 MPH WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WITH
HAIL OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING 1" IN DIAMETER. THERE IS ALSO A LOW
CHANCE FOR BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE, BUT LARGELY
UNFAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION SHOULD LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. THE MAIN THREAT MAY ACTUALLY TRANSITION TO FLOODING IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LINE SLOWS AND CONVECTION TRAINS.
IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES OF AS MUCH AS 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE
ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF DENTON, COLLIN, AND DALLAS
COUNTIES WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE EXITING THE CWA TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND DAYBREAK, AND
LIKELY WILL NOT CONTAIN MUCH, IF ANY, SEVERE THREAT BY THAT TIME
PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING, WITH POST-
FRONTAL STRATUS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES COMBINED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL THROUGH PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS, AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG IT
SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT BE STRONG OR
SEVERE, AND MOST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ESE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY QUICKLY WASHES OUT, AND ADDITIONAL FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MAY FILL IN BY THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTHWEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING
BY AFTERNOON. NOTHING SEVERE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY,
BUT SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AFTER THEN, AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA, ALTHOUGH I
WILL KEEP LOW RAIN CHANCES IN NEAR THE RED RIVER. THE UPPER RIDGE
ALSO SPELLS HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT, WHICH WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF STORM
COMPLEXES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
BE SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. 00Z MODELS
ALSO INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CONTINUED CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1238 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025/
/06Z TAFS/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY DEPARTED THE D10 AIRPORTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS OF 06Z. FOR WACO, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXIST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT, BUT MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST IN A FEW HOURS AND AFFECT THE TAF SITE
THROUGH 11-12Z. WHILE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
DUE TO CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, THEY WILL TAKE ON A PREDOMINANT
NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. POST-FRONTAL IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL FILL IN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK, RESULTING IN CIGS AT 1-2 KFT
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING ABOVE 2 KFT HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. NEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER
OUT TOWARDS 00Z, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE EASTERLY IN THE EVENING.
ADDITIONAL FOG/LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THE CURRENT
VALID TAF PERIOD ON THURSDAY MORNING.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 73 87 75 92 / 10 5 20 5 5
WACO 84 73 88 73 91 / 20 5 5 0 0
PARIS 84 71 83 71 89 / 40 5 20 5 10
DENTON 82 69 86 72 92 / 5 5 20 5 5
MCKINNEY 83 71 86 73 91 / 10 5 20 5 5
DALLAS 84 73 87 75 93 / 10 5 10 0 5
TERRELL 85 72 87 73 91 / 20 5 10 0 5
CORSICANA 86 73 89 75 92 / 30 5 5 0 5
TEMPLE 88 73 91 73 94 / 30 5 5 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 83 69 87 72 93 / 5 5 20 5 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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