958
FXUS64 KFWD 041831
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
131 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN
EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT ANY OCCURRENCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE ISOLATED.
- LOW TO MEDIUM STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1229 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025/
/THROUGH THURSDAY/
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG A
BONHAM-CORSICANA-KILLEEN LINE. POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CONTINUES TO
BLANKET AREAS AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG WITH PLEASANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH ANOTHER BLOSSOMING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DESTABILIZE. WEAK SHEAR WILL MAKE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
UNLIKELY, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE IN ABUNDANCE. THEREFORE, WE
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO, WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. SKIES SHOULD SEE A BIT OF CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN
THE MID 80S, BUT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S.
LOW STRATUS WILL BE QUICK TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND
PATCHY FOG/MIST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CLOSER
TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. A CLUSTER OF STORMS ORIGINATING IN
WEST TEXAS WILL MAKE A RUN AT OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING TREND, BUT HAVE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED/EXPANDED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING TO REFLECT
THIS POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY, THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, WEAK
CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A COUPLE STORMS
TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. 10-20% POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO REFLECT
THIS POTENTIAL. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THERE'S A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL THAT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY AS THE EARLY MORNING
STORMS, LIKELY MAKING A RUN AT OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED IN SOME LOW (20%) POPS GIVEN THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THESE STORMS ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE FORECAST
AREA AS THEY SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER, IF THEY ARE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY, THERE WOULD BE A LOW THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. OTHERWISE, WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
BARNES
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/THURSDAY EVENING ONWARD/
WE WILL WRAP UP THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY BUT WARMER CONDITIONS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP SOME OF OUR
RED RIVER COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 90S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
PERIODIC STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. A STORM COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
BEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. MOST OF THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. NOT ONLY WE WILL SEE DAILY RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT ALSO NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 80S.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1229 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD LIFT
AND SCATTER THIS EVENING WITH VFR EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL BE BRIEF, AS MVFR STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP AROUND 06-07Z AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11-14Z
BUT HAS ONLY BEEN INCLUDED IN THE KACT TAF WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST. PATCHY FOG/MIST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION NEAR SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING, BUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT ANY OF THE D10 TERMINALS.
THEREFORE, THIS HAS ONLY BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE KACT TAF FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AOB 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TOMORROW.
BARNES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 71 87 75 93 77 / 5 10 0 0 5
WACO 71 87 74 90 74 / 5 10 0 0 0
PARIS 69 86 71 89 73 / 5 10 5 10 10
DENTON 66 87 73 93 73 / 5 20 5 5 10
MCKINNEY 68 86 74 92 74 / 5 10 5 5 10
DALLAS 71 88 75 93 76 / 5 10 0 0 5
TERRELL 70 87 74 90 74 / 5 10 0 0 5
CORSICANA 73 89 75 91 76 / 5 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE 72 90 74 93 74 / 5 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 66 88 72 94 72 / 10 20 0 0 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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