388
FXUS64 KFWD 042357
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
657 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND,
WITH LOW STORM CHANCES (15-30%) NEAR THE RED RIVER EACH NIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS TO THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH DAILY CHANCES (40-60%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
..TONIGHT
RELATIVELY COOL AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S OWING TO HIGH DEW POINTS AND CLOUD
COVER THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GULF.
..THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW A VERY HUMID AIRMASS
AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS AIRMASS, A DECAYING
MCS SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS SOMETIME AFTER
5AM. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE ANY MEANINGFUL
INTRUSION INTO OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW
CHANCES (15-25%) FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF
I-35 AND NORTH OF I-20.
THE ABUNDANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE IN CONJUNCTION
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK BY
EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON, AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. IF CLOUD COVER IS ABLE TO REMAIN ALL DAY
TOMORROW, HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER IN THE LOW AND MID
80S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM AND MUGGY, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
AND MID 70S.
DARRAH
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 131 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025/
/THURSDAY EVENING ONWARD/
WE WILL WRAP UP THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY BUT WARMER CONDITIONS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP SOME OF OUR
RED RIVER COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 90S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
PERIODIC STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. A STORM COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
BEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. MOST OF THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. NOT ONLY WE WILL SEE DAILY RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT ALSO NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 80S.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
A DECK OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER 06Z. TAF SITES WILL DROP TO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 08Z AND
10Z, THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE (40%) THAT THIS HAPPENS AND HOUR OR
TWO EARLIER AT KACT. IFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR (KACT), THOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (30%) FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE METROPLEX BETWEEN
10Z AND 17Z THURSDAY. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS BKN/OVC SKIES ALL DAY
TOMORROW, BUT HAVE GONE WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC REMOVAL OF LOW-
LEVEL STRATUS, SCATTERING OUT THE DECK BY 21Z THURSDAY.
DARRAH
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 71 86 75 93 77 / 5 10 5 0 5
WACO 71 87 74 90 74 / 5 10 0 0 0
PARIS 69 85 73 89 73 / 0 10 5 10 10
DENTON 66 85 75 93 73 / 5 10 5 5 10
MCKINNEY 68 85 75 92 74 / 5 10 5 5 10
DALLAS 71 87 75 93 76 / 5 10 5 0 5
TERRELL 70 86 74 90 74 / 0 10 0 0 5
CORSICANA 73 87 75 91 76 / 5 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE 73 89 74 93 74 / 5 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 66 86 72 94 72 / 0 20 5 0 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page