790
FXUS64 KFWD 051058
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
558 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND,
WITH LOW STORM CHANCES (15-30%) NEAR THE RED RIVER EACH NIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS TO THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH DAILY CHANCES (40-60%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE WICHITA
FALLS AREA AND SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES AND ENCOUNTERS VERY MEAGER
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER MLCIN. CURRENT HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
AS THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM DIMINISHING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
HIGHWAY 287/81 CORRIDORS AROUND 8-9AM THIS MORNING. WE CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT TO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED WARM-ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BENEATH
A DENSE LAYER OF LOW STRATUS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LANGFELD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH FRIDAY/
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SETTLED OVER PARTS OF EAST AND
CENTRAL TEXAS LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF
IMPRESSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST TONIGHT ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL MAKE A RUN FOR OUR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD ADVANCE VERY LITTLE
INTO OUR CWA BEFORE FALLING APART. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH LOW CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERING AND SOME SUNSHINE AFTER
3-4PM. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, BUT IF DENSE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS OVERHEAD ALL DAY, ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX SKIRTING OUR FAR NORTHERN RED RIVER COUNTIES EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO FRIDAY AS
MID-/UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED FRIDAY.
LANGFELD
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 327 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, HELPING TO KEEP MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH IN OKLAHOMA WHILE KEEPING US
HOT AND HUMID. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK QUITE TOASTY, RANGING FROM
LOW 90S IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES UP TO MID 90S IN OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST. AFTER THEN, THE H5 RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE AND
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FREQUENT MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EACH
NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SPAWN A MCS IN OKLAHOMA THAT WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
TEXAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR
8 C/KM AND STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR - PARAMETERS ALL
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND EVEN A LOW TORNADO
THREAT. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER MCS FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN,
SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EVEN
HIGHER MLCAPE TO 3000 J/KG, STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR
8.5 C/KM, AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
FROM MONDAY ONWARD, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS TO OOZE SOUTHWARD INTO ROUGHLY THE MIDDLE OF THE
CWA, THEN REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE MCS TRAIN FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
AFFECTING A BIGGER CHUNK OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE COOLER AS A RESULT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 80S FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD, MODELS KEEP A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER TEXAS, WHICH
WOULD KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE, COOLER PATTERN WITH FREQUENT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR/IFR CIGS NOW SPRAWL ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TODAY. IFR CIGS AND PATCHY
FOG/MIST SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
INTERMITTENTLY IMPACTING KACT. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD.
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS KSPS AND KRPH
THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
D10 TERMINALS BEFORE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. IF IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN LONGER THAN EXPECTED, THAN A VCTS OR VCSH
GROUP MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR THE METROPLEX SITES. WE CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT THIS POTENTIAL
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A TAF PRECIP ADDITION.
LANGFELD
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 87 76 92 76 93 / 20 5 5 5 10
WACO 88 74 91 74 93 / 10 0 0 0 0
PARIS 86 73 89 74 89 / 10 10 20 5 30
DENTON 86 74 92 74 92 / 20 10 5 5 10
MCKINNEY 86 74 91 74 91 / 20 10 5 5 10
DALLAS 88 76 93 77 95 / 20 5 5 5 10
TERRELL 87 74 90 74 92 / 20 5 5 0 10
CORSICANA 88 76 91 76 93 / 20 0 0 0 5
TEMPLE 89 74 93 74 95 / 10 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 87 73 93 73 95 / 20 5 0 5 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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