368
FXUS64 KFWD 051751
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1251 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND,
WITH LOW STORM CHANCES (15-30%) NEAR THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS TO THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH DAILY CHANCES (40-60%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH FRIDAY/
THIS MORNING'S COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS DISSIPATED. VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE.
WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS, EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING AS THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY, CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS RATHER
UNCERTAIN. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD MAKE A RUN AT OUR WESTERN
BORDER THIS EVENING, WITH SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER MCS PRIOR TO IT REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW (20%) POPS FOR NOW, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
IF THIS ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY, ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS EVENING'S STORMS EVOLVE, THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS OVERNIGHT. WE'LL MAINTAIN SOME LOW
(20-30%) STORM CHANCES IN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD
BE THE MAIN THREAT IF THIS MCS MATERIALIZES, WITH MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.
ONCE ANY MORNING STORMS COME TO AN END, HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK FOR A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
BARNES
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 327 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, HELPING TO KEEP MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH IN OKLAHOMA WHILE KEEPING US
HOT AND HUMID. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK QUITE TOASTY, RANGING FROM
LOW 90S IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES UP TO MID 90S IN OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST. AFTER THEN, THE H5 RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE AND
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FREQUENT MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EACH
NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SPAWN A MCS IN OKLAHOMA THAT WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
TEXAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR
8 C/KM AND STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR - PARAMETERS ALL
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND EVEN A LOW TORNADO
THREAT. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER MCS FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN,
SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EVEN
HIGHER MLCAPE TO 3000 J/KG, STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR
8.5 C/KM, AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
FROM MONDAY ONWARD, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS TO OOZE SOUTHWARD INTO ROUGHLY THE MIDDLE OF THE
CWA, THEN REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE MCS TRAIN FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
AFFECTING A BIGGER CHUNK OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE COOLER AS A RESULT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 80S FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD, MODELS KEEP A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER TEXAS, WHICH
WOULD KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE, COOLER PATTERN WITH FREQUENT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS RETURNING OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN
TOWARDS THE STORMS IN WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS
THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE A RUN AT NORTH TEXAS NEAR OR JUST AFTER
SUNSET. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP, SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS, THIS ACTIVITY
MAY APPROACH D10 AIRSPACE POTENTIALLY AROUND 03-05Z.
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE, BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW THE STORMS EVOLVE THIS EVENING, ANOTHER COMPLEX
OF STORMS COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER, AND IMPACTS TO ANY NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS IS QUITE UNLIKELY.
ONCE THIS ACTIVITY COMES TO AN END, RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS IN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS, BUT IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE METROPLEX TERMINALS. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AROUND 10-12 KNOTS.
BARNES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 87 76 93 76 93 / 30 5 10 5 10
WACO 87 74 91 74 93 / 10 0 0 0 0
PARIS 85 73 90 74 89 / 10 20 20 5 30
DENTON 86 73 93 74 92 / 30 10 10 5 10
MCKINNEY 86 74 92 74 91 / 30 20 20 5 10
DALLAS 88 76 93 77 95 / 30 5 10 5 10
TERRELL 87 74 91 74 92 / 20 5 5 0 10
CORSICANA 88 76 92 76 93 / 10 0 0 0 5
TEMPLE 89 74 93 74 95 / 10 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 87 72 94 73 95 / 30 20 5 5 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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