888
FXUS64 KFWD 052308
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
608 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRAY STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE (20%) LATE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND,
WITH LOW STORM CHANCES (15-20%) NEAR THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS TO THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH DAILY CHANCES (40-60%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
..TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT. IN LIEU OF PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST. AS SUCH, THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE (20-25%) FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, PRIMARILY WEST OF US-281 AND/OR NORTH OF US-380.
WITH MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG, ANY STORM THAT CAN LAST INTO OUR AREA
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME (<5% CHANCE), AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (20-30% CHANCE) MAY STILL LINGER
NEAR THE RED RIVER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY
NOON. THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WILL YIELD PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 104
DEGREES. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LOW RAIN CHANCES
(15-20%) RETURN TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS AN OVERNIGHT COMPLEX OF
STORMS IN OKLAHOMA MAY BARELY CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN SIDE OF OUR
REGION. AGAIN, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THIS AREA.
DARRAH
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 130 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025/
/FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. MCSS WILL
DEVELOP ON A DAILY BASIS AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SKIRT
NORTH TEXAS EACH NIGHT. WHILE MOST OF THE MCS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL EXPECTED TO
BE THE MAIN THREATS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
FORTUNATELY, THE RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S.
BARNES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS TONIGHT AFTER 06Z. COVERAGE WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE A BKN MVFR FM GROUP HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE KACT TAF. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (30-40%) OF
THESE MVFR CIGS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE METROPLEX SOMETIME
BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z FRIDAY, PRIMARILY THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE
(KGKY AND KDAL), BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.
DARRAH
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 92 76 94 74 / 5 5 0 5 30
WACO 75 91 74 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 5
PARIS 74 88 74 90 70 / 20 20 5 20 50
DENTON 75 92 74 94 71 / 10 10 0 5 30
MCKINNEY 75 91 75 92 73 / 10 20 0 5 40
DALLAS 77 93 77 95 75 / 5 5 0 5 30
TERRELL 75 89 74 92 74 / 5 5 0 5 30
CORSICANA 76 89 75 93 76 / 0 0 0 0 10
TEMPLE 75 92 74 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 74 92 73 95 72 / 10 0 0 0 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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