039
FXUS64 KFWD 292352
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
652 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS
IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 99 TO 103 DEGREES.
- THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEK, WITH BEST CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS.
- TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THIS WEEKEND, WITH
CHANCES OF 40 TO 70 PERCENT IN NORTH TEXAS STARTING SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS NOT MUCH REMAINS OF THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WAS ENHANCED BY THE
ONSHORE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
BARRY, IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES
THIS EVENING. THIS SETS US UP FOR ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STAGNANT OVER THE GULF
COAST ON MONDAY WHILE AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY MORNING, MOVING STEADILY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DO LITTLE TO
QUELL THE ONGOING SUMMER HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN PEAKING IN
THE MID 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL PUSH THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (HEAT INDEX VALUES) INTO THE 98-103 DEGREE
RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL
SLOW DOWN AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
THE FRONT (AND THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY) WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS
REASON, WE DID NO DEVIATE FROM THE NBM POP FORECAST WHICH KEEPS
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRECIP-FREE UNTIL AFTER 00Z (7 PM CDT
MONDAY). SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE ON THE INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT.
12
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 105 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025/
/MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER, WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NORTH TEXAS AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS UNLIKELY, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING THE
MAIN HAZARDS. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER MIDWEEK, FORCING THE
FRONT TO RETREAT NORTH. HOWEVER, A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST OUT WEST, AND WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERRUPTIONS TO JULY 4TH ACTIVITIES. LOOKING
AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, WE MAY FINALLY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS NBM PROBABILITIES OF 100+ BETWEEN 40-70%
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS (20-40% IN CENTRAL TEXAS).
PRATER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 9-12 KTS AND OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF KACT. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE METROPLEX UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE END OF EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC AROUND
THE BOWIE AND BONHAM CORNERPOSTS AS EARLY AS 30/21Z. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO D10 WILL BE ADDRESSED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
(190-220) AFTER 30/14Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FREQUENT GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
12
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 96 77 95 78 / 0 5 20 10 5
WACO 75 96 75 95 77 / 0 5 5 5 5
PARIS 74 94 73 92 74 / 0 5 20 20 5
DENTON 76 97 74 94 74 / 0 10 20 20 5
MCKINNEY 77 96 76 94 76 / 0 5 20 20 5
DALLAS 78 97 78 97 79 / 0 5 20 10 5
TERRELL 75 96 75 95 75 / 0 5 10 10 5
CORSICANA 76 96 76 96 77 / 5 5 5 10 5
TEMPLE 74 96 74 95 74 / 0 5 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS 75 97 73 95 74 / 0 5 30 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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