159  
FXUS64 KFWD 300538  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
1238 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS  
IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 99 TO 103 DEGREES AT TIMES.  
 
- THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS  
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
 
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
/NEW/  
/MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/  
 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR TO OUR WEST, NORTH, AND NORTHEAST  
TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPING NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS  
DRY, BUT SOME OF THIS MAY CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT. NONE OF THE CURRENT  
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH TEXAS. WITH THE  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY,  
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S, AND HEAT  
INDEX VALUES WILL PASS THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS. A  
10-15 MPH BREEZE, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH, WILL  
PROVIDE OCCASIONAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.  
 
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE  
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TO THE NORTH AS ANOTHER  
COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA. THIS SYSTEM WILL  
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT, AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE RED  
RIVER AFTER DARK. MOST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS WEAKEN THESE  
STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE RED RIVER, BUT STILL PUSH AT LEAST A  
FEW STORMS ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF  
NORTH TEXAS. THE PROPERTIES OF THE COLD POOL OF THE OKLAHOMA  
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PLAY A DECIDING FACTOR IN WHERE AND HOW FAR  
SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY AND ANY STORMS ADVANCE MONDAY NIGHT, AND THOSE  
DETAILS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.  
WILL KEEP 20-30% POPS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 TONIGHT  
WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 380. RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
WILL BE MINIMAL WITH OVERALL VALUES LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. THERE  
IS A LESS THAN 10% PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TOTALS CLOSER TO  
0.50 INCHES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT GUSTY WINDS AND  
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
JLDUNN  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
/ISSUED 105 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025/  
/MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD/  
 
THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER, WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NORTH TEXAS AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY. SEVERE  
WEATHER REMAINS UNLIKELY, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING THE  
MAIN HAZARDS. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER MIDWEEK, FORCING THE  
FRONT TO RETREAT NORTH. HOWEVER, A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL KEEP  
LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST OUT WEST, AND WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE  
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERRUPTIONS TO JULY 4TH ACTIVITIES. LOOKING  
AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, WE MAY FINALLY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE  
DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS NBM PROBABILITIES OF 100+ BETWEEN 40-70%  
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS (20-40% IN CENTRAL TEXAS).  
 
PRATER  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
/NEW/  
/06Z TAFS/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL  
PREVAIL AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20  
KTS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY BETWEEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND  
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, SO WILL PREVAIL THE MAIN DIRECTION FROM THE  
SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
AFTER 01/03Z, A COMPLEX OF STORMS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY SEND  
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE DFW AIRPORTS. THERE IS A  
LESS THAN 20% CHANCE THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REACHES THE DFW  
TERMINALS, AND HAVE KEPT A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THIS TAF CYCLE, BUT  
THIS IS A SCENARIO THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MONDAY EVENING  
AND NIGHT. CONVECTION MAY ACCOMPANY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO  
NORTH TEXAS, AND THAT WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. AT THE  
VERY LEAST, ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE RED RIVER COULD IMPACT ANY  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ARRIVALS FROM THE NORTH.  
 
JLDUNN  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 96 78 95 78 / 0 5 20 10 5  
WACO 74 96 75 95 77 / 0 10 5 5 5  
PARIS 74 93 75 92 74 / 0 5 30 20 5  
DENTON 75 97 76 94 74 / 0 5 30 20 5  
MCKINNEY 78 96 77 94 76 / 0 5 30 20 5  
DALLAS 78 97 78 97 79 / 0 5 20 10 5  
TERRELL 74 95 76 95 75 / 0 5 20 10 5  
CORSICANA 74 95 76 96 77 / 5 10 10 10 5  
TEMPLE 73 96 74 95 74 / 0 10 5 5 5  
MINERAL WELLS 72 97 73 95 74 / 0 5 30 20 10  
 
 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
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