385
FXUS64 KFWD 301006
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
506 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS
IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 99 TO 103 DEGREES AT TIMES.
- THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS, AND LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NEAR
THE BIG COUNTRY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. INCOMING MODEL FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT AT FIRST GLANCE INDICATE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
TO CROSS THE RED RIVER TONIGHT INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-20, BUT THERE
ARE A FEW LARGER FACTORS WORKING AGAINST THIS POTENTIAL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS TONIGHT.
JLDUNN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR TO OUR WEST, NORTH, AND NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPING NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
DRY, BUT SOME OF THIS MAY CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT. NONE OF THE CURRENT
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH TEXAS. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S, AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL PASS THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS. A
10-15 MPH BREEZE, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH, WILL
PROVIDE OCCASIONAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TO THE NORTH AS ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT, AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE RED
RIVER AFTER DARK. MOST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS WEAKEN THESE
STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE RED RIVER, BUT STILL PUSH AT LEAST A
FEW STORMS ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS. THE PROPERTIES OF THE COLD POOL OF THE OKLAHOMA
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PLAY A DECIDING FACTOR IN WHERE AND HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY AND ANY STORMS ADVANCE MONDAY NIGHT, AND THOSE
DETAILS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
WILL KEEP 20-30% POPS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 380. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL WITH OVERALL VALUES LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. THERE
IS A LESS THAN 10% PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TOTALS CLOSER TO
0.50 INCHES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
JLDUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 241 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025/
/TUESDAY ONWARD/
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATING CONVECTION ALONG THE RED
RIVER WILL HELP PUSH A MEANDERING FRONT SOUTH TO NEAR THE HIGHWAY
380 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A SURFACE
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE NORTH FLANK OF A 500MB
RIDGE CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS. THE RIDGE WILL WORK AGAINST
CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS, PRECLUDING HIGHER COVERAGE AND LIKELY KEEPING
MOST LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE. TUESDAY'S POPS WILL HENCE BE LIMITED TO
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 AND CAPPED AT 30 PERCENT.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE RIDGE ON
ONE SIDE VS SURFACE OUTFLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT ON THE
OTHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER TO THE
ARKLATEX REGION ON WEDNESDAY, LIMITING WEDNESDAY'S RAIN CHANCES
TO AREAS NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35 (EVEN THOSE WILL BE BELOW
20%). THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO THROUGH
THE BIG COUNTRY OF TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE RESULT LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES BEING LIMITED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-35. THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY, THERE IS A 10-20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A SHOWER OR STORM MAY AFFECT OUTDOOR JULY 3RD/4TH
ACTIVITIES, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER AFTER
THE 4TH, PUSHING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 OVER THE WEEKEND.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS, AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER AREA BEFORE 06Z
TONIGHT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE THESE STORMS
MOVE INTO THE DFW METROPLEX, BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE ASSESSED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IF THE CONVECTION DOES TRAVEL AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE DFW METROPLEX, A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
WITH AN ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. NEITHER OF THESE 2
POSSIBILITIES ARE GREAT ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN THE 12Z TAF
PACKAGE, BUT THE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
JLDUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 95 77 95 78 96 / 5 20 20 5 10
WACO 94 75 95 75 95 / 10 5 10 5 10
PARIS 92 75 92 73 93 / 5 30 20 5 10
DENTON 95 75 93 74 95 / 5 30 20 5 10
MCKINNEY 95 76 93 75 96 / 5 30 20 5 10
DALLAS 96 78 97 78 98 / 5 20 20 5 10
TERRELL 94 76 95 75 96 / 5 20 20 5 10
CORSICANA 94 76 96 76 96 / 10 10 10 5 10
TEMPLE 95 73 96 73 95 / 10 5 10 5 10
MINERAL WELLS 96 74 94 74 96 / 5 30 20 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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