469
FXUS64 KFWD 301834
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
134 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN NORTH
TEXAS, AND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WEST OF US-281.
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS
IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 99 TO 103 DEGREES AT TIMES.
- TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY SUNDAY ONWARD, WITH
40-70% CHANCES OF 100 DEGREES OR MORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
EXPECT A WARM AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE
90S AND HEAT INDICES UP TO 100-104 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE MIDWEST, SHUNTING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA OVER THE REST OF TODAY. CLOSER TO US, AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE
RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS OUTFLOW THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING, WITH MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS AND RESULTING COLD POOL THAN IN PREVIOUS
DAYS, WITH MOST SOLUTIONS NOW PUSHING THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
ACCOMPANYING STORMS FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATER
TONIGHT. WHILE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
NORTH OF US-380, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED. THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS ON THE LOWER END, THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS ALONG
THE RED RIVER. SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT TO
ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. ISOLATED STORMS WILL PERSISTING PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT, WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
NORTH TEXAS OVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THE LOCATION OF
ANY ADDITIONAL LINGERING OUTFLOWS WILL ALSO IMPACT HOW FAR SOUTH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WITH THE MAIN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF I-20, AND THE CAMS HIGHLIGHTING OUR
WEST/SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WITH ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT, HAVE EXPANDED
LOW 20% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SANS
THE BRAZOS VALLEY. MORE EXACT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CONTINGENT UPON THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARIES, AND MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED OR INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO TRIPLE DIGITS FOR MOST.
PRATER
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
RIDGING WILL START TO NOSE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MIDWEEK,
STUNTING RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, DISTURBANCES IN WEST TEXAS WILL
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS NEAR AND WEST OF
US-281 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHICH MAY IMPACT OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY
PLANS. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERTOP THE CENTRAL CONUS,
LEADING TO WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS NEXT WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
TRIPLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE TO BE MORE FAVORED DURING
THIS TIME, WITH CHANCES OF 100+ BETWEEN 40-70% ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION (CLOSER TO ~30% IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY).
PRATER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN D10 CORNERPOSTS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL FORCE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH, FORCING
D10 WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 05Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS OUTFLOW AS IT
PASSES THROUGH AND HAVE INTRODUCED A VCTS FROM 05-09Z FOR ALL D10
AIRPORTS. DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE LESS CERTAIN, BUT WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FOR TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE IT REACHES ACT. WINDS AT D10 WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
ACT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW-W UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHEN
FLOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT WEST-NORTHWEST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AFTER THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATION IS LOW AT THE TIME.
PRATER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 96 77 96 78 98 / 5 20 20 5 5
WACO 95 73 96 75 95 / 0 5 5 0 5
PARIS 93 74 92 74 94 / 5 40 20 5 10
DENTON 96 74 95 74 98 / 10 30 20 5 5
MCKINNEY 96 75 94 75 97 / 5 30 20 5 5
DALLAS 97 78 97 78 98 / 5 20 20 5 5
TERRELL 95 75 96 75 97 / 0 20 20 0 5
CORSICANA 95 75 97 76 97 / 5 5 10 0 5
TEMPLE 96 73 96 73 95 / 5 5 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS 97 73 95 74 97 / 5 20 20 5 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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