845
FXUS64 KFWD 010605
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
105 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TUESDAY.
- LOW STORM CHANCES (10-20%) WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY FOR AREAS NEAR/WEST OF U.S. 281.
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 99 TO 103 DEGREES AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TONIGHT'S STORMS HAS CROSSED SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE METROPLEX AND IS SLOWLY LOSING MOMENTUM HEADING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. ONGOING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT MOST, BEFORE
DIMINISHING. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE OUTFLOW DROPPED INTO THE LOW
70S, WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 60S READINGS INTERSPERSED ALONG THE
RED RIVER AND NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX. AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS
OVERHEAD STILL, BUT LOWS SHOULD DROP A BIT MORE THIS MORNING AND
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR A FEW LUCKY SPOTS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS, WITH THE MORE SEASONABLE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE, JULY WILL KICK OFF WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS, WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. JULY 1 IS THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE OF REACHING 100 DEGREES
FOR DFW (JULY 4 FOR WACO), AND THANKFULLY, NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL BE LATER THAN AVERAGE THIS YEAR WITH RUN-OF-THE-MILL SUMMER
HEAT ANTICIPATED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY DURING THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LOW (~20-30%). ISOLATED STORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED, GENERALLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS
NORTHERN CENTRAL TX WHICH ALIGNS WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE. SIMILAR TO MANY OF THE PREVIOUS DAYS OVER THE LAST
WEEK OR SO, THESE STORMS AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE IMPRESSIVE, BUT
MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
GORDON
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/WEDNESDAY ONWARD/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY QUIET WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
AND LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS OUT WEST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP LARGELY
SUBSIDENT WEATHER IN PLACE WITH MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF U.S. 281
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WHERE AN ENHANCED PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE THROUGH WEST TX AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT 20% POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY/JULY 4TH, RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END
WITH HIGHS NUDGING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S.
GORDON
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE D10 AIRSPACE TONIGHT
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO STILL ONGOING
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE CONTINUED VCTS
THROUGH 07Z AT AFW/DFW TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY. ONCE
THIS DIMINISHES, SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 050-060 WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. N/NW WINDS BEHIND THE
OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AROUND 5-10 KTS, BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING HOURS AND BECOMING LIGHT.
FOR WACO, VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH S/SW WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, SIMILARLY SHIFTING TO THE SE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED TSRA IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH KACT HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
OF IMPACTS, BUT ANY MENTION WILL BE PRECLUDED FROM THE TAFS AS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW (20% CHANCE).
GORDON
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 93 78 95 78 / 50 20 10 10 5
WACO 71 94 75 95 76 / 5 10 10 5 5
PARIS 73 91 73 92 73 / 30 20 5 10 5
DENTON 71 90 74 95 74 / 50 20 10 10 5
MCKINNEY 76 92 74 94 76 / 50 20 10 10 5
DALLAS 77 94 78 96 78 / 50 20 10 10 5
TERRELL 73 93 74 95 75 / 30 20 10 10 5
CORSICANA 74 95 75 96 76 / 10 20 10 5 0
TEMPLE 69 95 73 95 73 / 5 10 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS 73 92 74 95 73 / 50 30 10 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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