296
FXUS64 KFWD 011824
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
124 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE).
- LOW STORM CHANCES (10-20%) WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY FOR AREAS NEAR/WEST OF U.S. 281.
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 99 TO 103 DEGREES AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY AND WEDNESDAY/
SCATTERED LIGHT AND MOSTLY ELEVATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AT MIDDAY, EXTENDING INTO OUR RED
RIVER COUNTIES NORTH OF DFW. THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTS WITHIN AREAS
OF WEAK LIFT, MODEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER. MUCH OF IT IS ALSO OCCURRING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINGERING BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF NORTH
TEXAS YESTERDAY EVENING.
ALL THAT SAID, WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE ON A SCATTERED BASIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH A
STEADY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OCCURRING TOWARD SUNSET.
INSTABILITY IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE RAGGED EASTERN
MARGINS OF THE CLOUD FIELD OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, AND BELIEVE
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURING GENERALLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS TEMPERATURES RISE
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY, THOUGH
THE CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW.
VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CEASE BY THIS EVENING,
AND A PARTIAL EROSION OF CLOUDCOVER SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT. PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID CONDITIONS - TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY - SHOULD
DOMINATE NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY, AS WEAK MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
REASSERTS ITSELF.
BRADSHAW
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A NARROW RIDGE OF MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED
OVER EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, PROVIDING A MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION. GOOD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THIS AREA SHOULD HELP
FACILITATE AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD THANKFULLY HELP
RESTRAIN DAYTIME HIGHS FROM REACHING ABOVE THE MID 90S THROUGH THE
END OF THE 4TH OF JULY WEEK.
AS WE REACH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE TO AN AXIS WEST OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY
DAILY RAIN CHANCES TO ALL EXCEPT THE RED RIVER COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INCREMENTALLY INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
BRADSHAW
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
A FEW SHOWERS - MOSTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE - WILL LINGER ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 00Z, AND SOME OF THESE MAY JUST BRUSH
THE WESTERN PARTS OF D10. INCLUDED VCSH IN THE METROPLEX TAFS, AND
ACTUALLY CONSIDERED THE ADDITION OF VCTS OWING TO AN INCREASING
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS FAIRLY LOW, HOWEVER, OWING TO
PERSISTENT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND PRECLUDED MENTION WITH
THE 18Z ISSUANCE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS D10 SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, LEAVING
SCT050 CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS REMAINS NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN VERY WEAK NORTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS D10, WHICH SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT EAST WINDS, OR PERHAPS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BRADSHAW
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 92 77 94 76 92 / 20 5 10 5 10
WACO 94 76 94 75 90 / 5 5 5 5 20
PARIS 91 72 91 74 91 / 10 5 5 5 10
DENTON 92 73 93 74 92 / 20 5 10 5 10
MCKINNEY 92 74 93 75 93 / 20 5 10 5 10
DALLAS 95 78 94 77 92 / 20 5 10 5 10
TERRELL 92 74 94 74 93 / 20 5 10 5 10
CORSICANA 95 77 96 76 94 / 10 5 5 5 10
TEMPLE 95 74 95 74 92 / 5 5 10 5 20
MINERAL WELLS 92 74 92 74 91 / 20 20 20 10 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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