297
FXUS64 KFWD 021500
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1000 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS (20-30%) WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY.
- LOW STORM CHANCES (20-40%) CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MAINLY
FOR AREAS NEAR/WEST OF U.S. 281.
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 99 TO 103 DEGREES AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 108 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025/
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY, WITH A MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY. WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BENEATH BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S THIS MORNING. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST, WHILE A MEANDERING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
POSITIONED NEAR THE WEST COAST. IN BETWEEN THE TWO, A PLUME OF RICH
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AND MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE FAVORED FARTHER WEST, BUT WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
CAN EXPECT TO SEE AROUND 20-30% COVERAGE MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF
U.S. 281, WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS
MORE SUBSIDENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
ON THURSDAY, SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST, WITH 20% POPS
SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS IS DUE TO THE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND MORE WIDESPREAD,
(ALBEIT WEAK) ASCENT BEING ABLE TO SET UP OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE BECOMING CONCENTRATED OVER THE BIG COUNTRY AND
INTO NORTH TX. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
GORDON
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 108 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025/
/THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES AND PWAT VALUES BECOME
MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY/NORTH TX AS BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA (GUIDANCE DEPICTING > 2", GREATER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE). FRIDAY'S CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST
ONCE AGAIN IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE METROPLEX AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS FOR JULY 4TH DURING THE DAY AND
ARE GENERALLY NEAR/WEST OF I-35, DO STAY WEATHER AWARE
(ESPECIALLY IF YOU PLAN ON BEING ON ANY LAKES). COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN LOW, HOWEVER, WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY ON FRIDAY.
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD THEN BE MOSTLY RAIN-
FREE AND A BIT WARMER AS RIDGING IS ABLE TO GET A STRONGER
FOOTHOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF JULY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S EACH DAY SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKING AT THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK, MORE POTENT SUBSIDENCE MAY SET
UP, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD BE THE NEXT
REAL SHOT AT OUR FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR HEADING INTO
MID-JULY, AND HAS ALSO NECESSITATED CPC OUTLINING A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXTREME HEAT FROM 7/9-7/12 MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES.
GORDON
AVIATION
/NEW/
UPDATE:
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ALONG PARTS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON, ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCSH IN THE SCHEDULED 15Z TAF AMENDMENTS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO MEAGER TO INCLUDE A TS MENTION, BUT THERE IS
A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT A
TERMINAL.
FOR THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS, THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT TURNS THE
WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON, BUT STILL AT
SPEEDS LESS THAN 7 KTS. IT'S MORE LIKELY THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE VARIABLE AT TIMES AND WILL PREVAIL AN EAST WIND IN THE TAF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
JLDUNN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/12Z TAFS/
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE E/SE TODAY
AROUND 5 TO 8 KTS IN SPEED. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS THE BULK
OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO BE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES,
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ENTIRELY A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IMPACTING A
SITE THIS AFTERNOON (10-20% CHANCE). OTHERWISE, THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR (~20%) AROUND/AFTER 12Z TOMORROW MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
STORMS. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE, WILL OPT TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
INCLUDE IN LATER ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.
GORDON
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 93 77 90 76 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
WACO 94 75 91 74 91 / 20 5 20 10 10
PARIS 91 74 89 73 90 / 20 5 5 5 10
DENTON 93 74 90 74 92 / 30 10 10 10 10
MCKINNEY 92 75 90 75 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
DALLAS 94 77 91 76 92 / 20 5 10 10 10
TERRELL 93 75 91 74 92 / 10 5 10 10 10
CORSICANA 96 76 93 75 93 / 10 5 10 10 5
TEMPLE 95 74 91 73 93 / 20 10 20 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 91 73 88 73 91 / 40 20 30 30 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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