033
FXUS64 KFWD 021810
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
110 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (40-50%) WEST OF HIGHWAY
281.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT GUSTY WINDS, OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING MAY IMPACT OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES.
- OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
90S.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY/
RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUING TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE OVERALL FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND A
WEAK TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE STATE. OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES MAY BE
(TEMPORARILY) IMPACTED BY RAIN OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, IN PARTICULAR WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES, UP TO 50% AT TIMES, CONTINUE TO BE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT HAVE EXPANDED LOW POPS (20-30%)
EASTWARD ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS LARGE SCALE LIFT,
INSTABILITY, AND SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL. BUT WITH PWATS AVERAGING
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT 1.5"-2", BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE ISOLATED
LIGHTNING, MINOR STREET FLOODING DUE TO BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
SLOW MOVING CONVECTION, AND GUSTY WINDS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN
BE EXPECTED WHICH MAY MOVE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM.
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD
IMPACT AERIAL DISPLAYS AND ANY RESULTANT GRASS FIRE SUPPRESSION
EFFORTS. EAST OF I-35, IN EAST TEXAS, MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LARGELY BE LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH, BUT AREAS UNDER DOWNPOURS COULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.50-1.0" OF
RAIN AT A TIME.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER, CONVECTION,
AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THAT PAST FEW DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES LARGELY BELOW
100 DEGREES.
JLDUNN
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AND PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OUR REGION LOOKS TO STAY
ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH FLOW
ALOFT. IN THIS PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY CREEP BACK UP A
FEW DEGREES, BUT TRIPLE DIGIT VALUES LOOK TO HOLD OFF FOR A LITTLE
LONGER. HOWEVER, HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSER TO 100 DEGREES MAY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THIS FLOW PATTERN
HELPS KEEP SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED THIS WEEKEND (AND NEXT
WEEK) NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST, SKY AND RADAR.
JLDUNN
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE DFW
METROPLEX, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION, MOSTLY SHOWERS,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z AT ALL TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, BUT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE, AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE OF THE SHOWER
NATURE AND SHORT-LIVED. GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY CONVECTION,
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD IMPACT WINDS AT NEARBY AIRPORTS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EXISTS SOME TIME IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO THURSDAY. TIMING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS IS VERY
CHALLENGING BUT DID NOT WANT TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ON THE TAFS
SO OPTED FOR VCSH FROM 09-16Z WHICH CAPTURES MOST OF THE CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, IT'S POSSIBLE THE MAIN WINDOW SHIFTS OR
EXPANDS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS, BUT ISOLATED LIGHTNING
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHT WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE DIRECTIONS
AT TIMES. GUIDANCE EVEN INDICATES A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS
FOR THE DFW AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MAINTAINED A PREVAILING
EASTERLY DIRECTION. KACT COULD SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEPT A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
JLDUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 92 77 91 76 91 / 20 20 20 30 30
WACO 94 76 90 74 92 / 20 20 30 20 20
PARIS 91 75 90 73 89 / 20 10 20 20 20
DENTON 91 74 91 74 91 / 30 30 20 30 30
MCKINNEY 91 75 91 75 90 / 20 20 20 20 20
DALLAS 94 78 92 76 91 / 20 20 20 20 20
TERRELL 93 75 92 74 90 / 10 10 20 20 20
CORSICANA 95 77 94 76 92 / 10 10 20 20 20
TEMPLE 95 74 90 74 93 / 20 20 40 20 20
MINERAL WELLS 91 74 89 74 90 / 40 30 40 40 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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