616
FXUS64 KFWD 030008
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
708 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (40-50%) WEST OF HIGHWAY
281.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT GUSTY WINDS, OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING MAY IMPACT OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES.
- OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
90S.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 110 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025/
/TODAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY/
RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUING TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE OVERALL FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND A
WEAK TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE STATE. OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES MAY BE
(TEMPORARILY) IMPACTED BY RAIN OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, IN PARTICULAR WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES, UP TO 50% AT TIMES, CONTINUE TO BE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT HAVE EXPANDED LOW POPS (20-30%)
EASTWARD ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS LARGE SCALE LIFT,
INSTABILITY, AND SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL. BUT WITH PWATS AVERAGING
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT 1.5"-2", BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE ISOLATED
LIGHTNING, MINOR STREET FLOODING DUE TO BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
SLOW MOVING CONVECTION, AND GUSTY WINDS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN
BE EXPECTED WHICH MAY MOVE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM.
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD
IMPACT AERIAL DISPLAYS AND ANY RESULTANT GRASS FIRE SUPPRESSION
EFFORTS. EAST OF I-35, IN EAST TEXAS, MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LARGELY BE LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH, BUT AREAS UNDER DOWNPOURS COULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.50-1.0" OF
RAIN AT A TIME.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER, CONVECTION,
AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THAT PAST FEW DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES LARGELY BELOW
100 DEGREES.
JLDUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 110 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025/
/THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AND PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OUR REGION LOOKS TO STAY
ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH FLOW
ALOFT. IN THIS PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY CREEP BACK UP A
FEW DEGREES, BUT TRIPLE DIGIT VALUES LOOK TO HOLD OFF FOR A LITTLE
LONGER. HOWEVER, HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSER TO 100 DEGREES MAY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THIS FLOW PATTERN
HELPS KEEP SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED THIS WEEKEND (AND NEXT
WEEK) NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST, SKY AND RADAR.
JLDUNN
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTH TEXAS FOR EARLY JULY,
WITH SUBSTANTIAL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDCOVER AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER, WITH
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS WEST TEXAS, PRIMARILY JUST WEST OF D10.
ESSENTIALLY A VFR FORECAST FOR ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH
THURSDAY, BUT EXTENSIVE MULTILEVEL CEILINGS IN THE 120-250 LAYER.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
FACILITATE CONTINUED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS, MAINLY WEST OF D10 AND WACO, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BELIEVE THIS AXIS OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY, AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER
15Z. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ABOUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE SITES, SO HAVE HELD OFF ON INCLUDING
ANY TEMPO GROUPS. LIKEWISE, OMITTED MENTION OF VCTS, THOUGH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MAY EMERGE IN SOME AREAS TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
THUNDER IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT REGARDING THE WIND FORECASTS, OWING TO THE
MYRIAD BOUNDARIES IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING,
WITH MORE EXPECTED LATER. THAT BEING SAID, BELIEVE THE LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF D10 EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO AN EASTERLY, THEN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY. EXPECT CONTINUED
ERRATIC WINDS AT TIMES THURSDAY IN AND NEAR CONVECTION, AS WAS THE
CASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BRADSHAW
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 91 76 91 77 / 20 20 30 30 10
WACO 76 90 74 92 75 / 20 30 20 20 10
PARIS 75 90 73 89 74 / 10 20 20 20 10
DENTON 74 91 74 91 75 / 30 20 30 30 10
MCKINNEY 75 91 75 90 75 / 20 20 20 20 10
DALLAS 78 92 76 91 77 / 20 20 20 20 10
TERRELL 75 92 74 90 74 / 10 20 20 20 10
CORSICANA 77 94 76 92 76 / 10 20 20 20 10
TEMPLE 74 90 74 93 74 / 20 40 20 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 74 89 74 90 74 / 30 40 40 40 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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