909
FXUS64 KFWD 030619
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
119 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (40-60%) WEST OF HIGHWAY
281.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT GUSTY WINDS, OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING MAY IMPACT OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES.
- OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
90S.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
OVERCAST SKIES ARE IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS ONGOING
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN/SWERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH A GRADUAL EXPANSION EASTWARD HEADING INTO
THE MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH, ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO MID/LATE MORNING,
WITH A WEAKENING TREND FARTHER EAST AS THE ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING, WITH
A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY ON THE RADARSCOPE POTENTIALLY SETTING
UP MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS FAVORING
WESTERN CENTRAL TX FOR AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF CONVECTION BLOSSOMING
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AGAIN IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (40-60%) ARE
STILL FAVORED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, BUT 20-30% POPS ARE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING WEST OF I-35 THURSDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LIGHTNING WILL ALL BE HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BECOME
MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION FROM THE
INCREASED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH 30-50% POPS ARE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FOR THOSE NEAR AND WEST OF I-35. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DIMINISH BY THE EVENING, BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY FOR THE TIMING OF THIS ROUND AND ANY ASSOCIATED
IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. OTHERWISE,
FROM THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TOMORROW, HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S, WITH READINGS AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND CONTINUED ELEVATED HUMIDITY ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
GORDON
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/SATURDAY ONWARD/
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND, BUT WITH IT BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS SHIFTING TOWARDS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING
PERSISTING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
WILL AGAIN BE FAVORED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 90S THIS WEEKEND WILL
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S BY NEXT WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES BECOMING MORE LIKELY MONDAY ONWARD. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED TO BE DRIER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT RAIN CHANCES
WON'T BE ENTIRELY SHUT-OFF EITHER GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN.
GORDON
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
A MORE ACTIVE 24-30 HOURS WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS AROUND 5 TO 8 KTS WILL CONTINUE, WITH AN ESE
DIRECTION GENERALLY PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING TO THE
WEST IN THE ABILENE VICINITY, WHICH WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COVERAGE WILL
GRADUALLY EXPAND AND SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHICH
WILL BRING AN INITIAL PERIOD OF VCSH, LIKELY BEGINNING AROUND
10-11Z FOR WACO AND CLOSER TO 14Z FOR D10. WHILE VCSH IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW, THERE WILL BE PERIODIC BREAKS
IN NEARBY PRECIP. EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL
BE A LOWER CONCERN FOR DIRECT IMPACTS, BUT A PERIOD OF TSRA MAY
NEED TO BE INTRODUCED (MAINLY FOR WACO) IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MORE ROBUST STORMS WILL CONTAIN A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING, BUT GIVEN THE BROAD, SCATTERED
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED, ANY NARROW WINDOW OF TSRA CANNOT BE
CONFIDENTLY REFINED AT THIS POINT. FOR CIGS, THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF SCT-BKN 050-060 WITH ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE
OF ANY MVFR.
GORDON
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 86 75 90 76 / 20 30 30 20 5
WACO 75 88 75 90 75 / 30 30 20 20 5
PARIS 75 88 73 89 73 / 20 30 20 20 5
DENTON 73 86 73 90 75 / 30 40 30 30 5
MCKINNEY 75 87 74 90 75 / 20 30 30 20 5
DALLAS 78 88 75 91 76 / 20 30 30 20 5
TERRELL 75 89 74 91 74 / 20 30 20 20 5
CORSICANA 77 92 75 91 75 / 20 20 20 20 5
TEMPLE 74 88 73 90 72 / 30 40 20 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 73 86 73 89 73 / 40 50 40 40 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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