126
FXUS64 KFWD 031047
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
547 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (40-60%) WEST OF HIGHWAY
281.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT GUSTY WINDS, OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING MAY IMPACT OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES.
- OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
90S.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 119 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025/
/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
OVERCAST SKIES ARE IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS ONGOING
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN/SWERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH A GRADUAL EXPANSION EASTWARD HEADING INTO
THE MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH, ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO MID/LATE MORNING,
WITH A WEAKENING TREND FARTHER EAST AS THE ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING, WITH
A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY ON THE RADARSCOPE POTENTIALLY SETTING
UP MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS FAVORING
WESTERN CENTRAL TX FOR AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF CONVECTION BLOSSOMING
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AGAIN IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (40-60%) ARE
STILL FAVORED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, BUT 20-30% POPS ARE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING WEST OF I-35 THURSDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LIGHTNING WILL ALL BE HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BECOME
MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION FROM THE
INCREASED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH 30-50% POPS ARE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FOR THOSE NEAR AND WEST OF I-35. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DIMINISH BY THE EVENING, BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY FOR THE TIMING OF THIS ROUND AND ANY ASSOCIATED
IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. OTHERWISE,
FROM THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TOMORROW, HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S, WITH READINGS AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND CONTINUED ELEVATED HUMIDITY ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
GORDON
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 119 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025/
/SATURDAY ONWARD/
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND, BUT WITH IT BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS SHIFTING TOWARDS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING
PERSISTING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
WILL AGAIN BE FAVORED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 90S THIS WEEKEND WILL
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S BY NEXT WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES BECOMING MORE LIKELY MONDAY ONWARD. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED TO BE DRIER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT RAIN CHANCES
WON'T BE ENTIRELY SHUT-OFF EITHER GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN.
GORDON
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND THE BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING WITH POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AS
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. MAIN TIMING WINDOW THIS MORNING FOR D10 FOR
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ~14-17Z, AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
HIGH-END MVFR CIGS/VIS DURING THIS TIME. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE THUNDER POTENTIAL REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY TSRA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD,
BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE AS NEEDED, SINCE
ACTIVITY BEYOND MIDDAY IS FAVORED MORE TOWARDS CENTRAL TX AND
LESS CERTAIN FOR D10. VCSH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH 03Z FOR DFW
SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BREAK IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED, BUT TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE REFINED. AN ADDITIONAL PRECIP MENTION WILL ALSO
LIKELY BR NEEDED IN FUTURE ISSUANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR FRIDAY'S
ACTIVITY AT ALL SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING/COVERAGE
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
FOR WACO, THE TEMPO FOR MVFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING
BEFORE A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, WITH VCSH THROUGH 19Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY TSRA MAY DEVELOP AND
IMPACT KACT ~03Z AND BEYOND, BUT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS LESS CONFIDENT. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW, AS
WELL AS A SCT025, GIVEN ADDITIONAL MVFR POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME
(LIKELY CLOSER TO 09Z AND LATER, IF IT WERE TO OCCUR).
GORDON
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 86 75 90 76 93 / 30 30 20 5 10
WACO 88 75 90 75 93 / 40 30 20 5 10
PARIS 88 73 89 73 92 / 30 20 20 5 5
DENTON 86 73 90 75 94 / 40 30 30 5 10
MCKINNEY 87 74 90 75 92 / 30 30 20 5 5
DALLAS 88 75 91 76 94 / 30 30 20 5 5
TERRELL 89 74 91 74 93 / 30 20 20 5 5
CORSICANA 92 75 91 75 94 / 30 20 20 5 5
TEMPLE 88 73 90 72 93 / 50 30 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 86 73 89 73 93 / 50 40 40 10 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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