881
FXUS64 KFWD 031830
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
130 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (60-70%) WEST OF HIGHWAY
281.
- MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, OPENING THE DOOR FOR MOST EVENING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
WOULD STILL IMPACT OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.
- OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
90S.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY AND TOMORROW/
GENERAL METEOROLOGICAL SETUP:
IF YOU DON'T REMEMBER THAT THERE WAS A TROPICAL STORM IN THE GULF
JUST 3 DAYS AGO, YOU PROBABLY AREN'T ALONE. HOWEVER, IT'S EFFECTS
ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER HAVE BEEN NOTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF BARRY IS
FROM THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE MORNING FORT WORTH RAOB SOUNDING OBSERVED A PWAT OF 2.22",
WHICH IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE ALONE DOES NOT CAUSE PRECIPITATION. SINCE THE
AIRMASS IS GENERALLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE, IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH LIFT
TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A
BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN THE MID-LEVELS,
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A FEW POCKETS OF
ENHANCED LIFT HAVE TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE BOOSTED ASCENT
FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARIES.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT OFF/ON LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH A GRADUAL TAPERING OF RAIN
IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG COUNTRY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, LARGELY ALONG AND BEHIND A NORTHWARD MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS LONG AS THEY MOVE OVER AREAS THAT HAVE NOT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE WEEK, IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO
LARGE OF AN IMPACT.
WE KNOW THERE ARE A LOT OF OUTDOOR EVENTS PLANNED THIS EVENING.
BY-IN-LARGE, MOST OF THE STORMS AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 6-8 PM, OPENING THE DOOR FOR MOST EVENTS TO BE A
GO. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE A CLUSTER OF STORMS (CURRENTLY NEAR
MIDLAND) WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT RAMP UP OF PRECIPITATION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO MEANDER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
60-70% ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT EVEN
THOSE MIGHT BE UNDER DOING IT A BIT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK TOMORROW,
MAINLY WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE RAIN SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING, GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE LATE
IN THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
IN THE AFTERNOON, PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS AND INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE MORE HIT AND MISS IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST,
IF NOT ALL, OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 6-8 PM
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HEATING ENDS.
BONNETTE
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK/
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE. HOWEVER, THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE MOISTURE WILL FINALLY DISPERSE THROUGHOUT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A RETURN TO SEASONAL WEATHER
IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. BY MID-WEEK, A STRONG
RIDGE WILL BUILD TO OUR WEST, AND A WESTERLY MOVING TUTT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF...LEAVING OUR AREA IN A BIT OF A COL BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS. IT'S TOO SOON TO KNOW IF THE RIDGE WILL WIN OUT AND
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURN TO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK OR
IF THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BRINGS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. EITHER
WAY, WE DO NOT SEE ANY HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENTS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.
BONNETTE
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
THE AVIATION FORECASTS ARE QUITE A MESS TODAY. OFF/ON SHOWERS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THAT
SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ACT TERMINAL SHORTLY. WE HAVE A TS TEMPO WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THE INITIAL STORMS
MOVE NORTH, ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY MOVE IN AN HOUR OR SO LATER
BEFORE STORM CHANCES END FOR TODAY. WE'RE NOT EXPECTING THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO D10, HOWEVER IF THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES AT IT'S
CURRENT PACE WE MIGHT HAVE TO CHANGE THAT THINKING. WE WILL ASSESS
THAT BY THE 21Z TAFS.
PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING, EXCEPT
WELL WEST OF D10 AND ACT. AHEAD OF THE PRECIP, MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. WE AREN'T OVERLY CONFIDENT ABOUT THE ONSET TIMING OF THE
LOWER CEILINGS, BUT ARE CONFIDENT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WITH POCKETS
OF IFR WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIP
SHOULD STAY OUTSIDE OF THE TAF TERMINALS, HOWEVER THERE IS ABOUT A
20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
(FROM ABOUT 7-11Z) AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. WE
AREN'T CONFIDENT IN THIS ENOUGH TO ADD VCTS TO THE TAFS, BUT WILL
MONITOR REAL-TIME TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT.
BONNETTE
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 85 75 86 75 92 / 40 40 40 20 20
WACO 88 74 86 73 89 / 50 30 40 10 20
PARIS 88 73 87 71 91 / 30 30 40 5 10
DENTON 86 73 86 73 92 / 40 50 50 20 20
MCKINNEY 87 74 87 73 92 / 40 40 40 20 20
DALLAS 88 75 87 74 92 / 40 40 40 20 20
TERRELL 88 74 89 73 92 / 30 30 30 10 10
CORSICANA 91 75 88 74 92 / 40 20 30 10 20
TEMPLE 87 73 88 73 90 / 50 30 40 10 30
MINERAL WELLS 85 72 85 72 91 / 60 60 60 20 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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