470
FXUS64 KFWD 032357
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
657 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (60-70%) WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.
- MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, OPENING THE DOOR FOR MOST EVENING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
WOULD STILL IMPACT OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.
- OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
90S.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 130 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025/
/TODAY AND TOMORROW/
GENERAL METEOROLOGICAL SETUP:
IF YOU DON'T REMEMBER THAT THERE WAS A TROPICAL STORM IN THE GULF
JUST 3 DAYS AGO, YOU PROBABLY AREN'T ALONE. HOWEVER, IT'S EFFECTS
ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER HAVE BEEN NOTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF BARRY IS
FROM THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE MORNING FORT WORTH RAOB SOUNDING OBSERVED A PWAT OF 2.22",
WHICH IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE ALONE DOES NOT CAUSE PRECIPITATION. SINCE THE
AIRMASS IS GENERALLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE, IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH LIFT
TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A
BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN THE MID-LEVELS,
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A FEW POCKETS OF
ENHANCED LIFT HAVE TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE BOOSTED ASCENT
FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARIES.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT OFF/ON LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH A GRADUAL TAPERING OF RAIN
IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG COUNTRY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, LARGELY ALONG AND BEHIND A NORTHWARD MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS LONG AS THEY MOVE OVER AREAS THAT HAVE NOT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE WEEK, IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO
LARGE OF AN IMPACT.
WE KNOW THERE ARE A LOT OF OUTDOOR EVENTS PLANNED THIS EVENING.
BY-IN-LARGE, MOST OF THE STORMS AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 6-8 PM, OPENING THE DOOR FOR MOST EVENTS TO BE A
GO. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE A CLUSTER OF STORMS (CURRENTLY NEAR
MIDLAND) WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT RAMP UP OF PRECIPITATION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO MEANDER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
60-70% ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT EVEN
THOSE MIGHT BE UNDER DOING IT A BIT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK TOMORROW,
MAINLY WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE RAIN SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING, GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE LATE
IN THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
IN THE AFTERNOON, PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS AND INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE MORE HIT AND MISS IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST,
IF NOT ALL, OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 6-8 PM
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HEATING ENDS.
BONNETTE
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 130 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025/
/THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK/
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE. HOWEVER, THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE MOISTURE WILL FINALLY DISPERSE THROUGHOUT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A RETURN TO SEASONAL WEATHER
IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. BY MID-WEEK, A STRONG
RIDGE WILL BUILD TO OUR WEST, AND A WESTERLY MOVING TUTT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF...LEAVING OUR AREA IN A BIT OF A COL BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS. IT'S TOO SOON TO KNOW IF THE RIDGE WILL WIN OUT AND
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURN TO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK OR
IF THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BRINGS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. EITHER
WAY, WE DO NOT SEE ANY HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENTS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.
BONNETTE
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
THE DIFFUSE DEEP LAYER REMNANTS OF BARRY CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH
OF WEST TEXAS, WITH THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD HOVERING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES OF D10.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE, BUT IN
GENERAL BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOME DISTANCE TO THE WEST
THROUGH SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES, WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY PERSISTS. INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE TERMINALS FOR
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF D10
THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY.
FARTHER SOUTH AT WACO, WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING
IS BETTER, DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE TWO TEMPO SHRA GROUPS FOR THE
00-03Z AND 11-15Z PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IS NOT GREAT AT
ANY OF THE SITES, OWING TO LIMITED HEATING AND INSTABILITY, AND
OMITTED MENTION OF TSRA WITH THIS PACKAGE.
CEILING FORECASTS PRESENT ANOTHER CHALLENGE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT,
BUT IN GENERALLY SHOWED A TREND OF LOWERING VFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE NIGHT, TRANSITIONING TO BKN025 MVFR CONDITIONS AT WACO AT 09Z,
AND AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BY 11Z. BASED ON THE HREF CEILING
PROBABILITIES, WASN'T CONFIDENT ABOUT SEEING LOWER MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS AT THE DFW-AREA TAF SITES, BUT CHANCES ARE GREATER AT
WACO DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 09 TO 13 KNOTS.
BRADSHAW
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 86 75 92 75 / 40 40 20 20 10
WACO 74 86 73 89 72 / 30 40 10 20 10
PARIS 73 87 71 91 73 / 30 40 5 10 5
DENTON 73 86 73 92 73 / 50 50 20 20 10
MCKINNEY 74 87 73 92 73 / 40 40 20 20 10
DALLAS 75 87 74 92 76 / 40 40 20 20 10
TERRELL 74 89 73 92 72 / 30 30 10 10 10
CORSICANA 75 88 74 92 73 / 20 30 10 20 10
TEMPLE 73 88 73 90 71 / 30 40 10 30 10
MINERAL WELLS 72 85 72 91 72 / 60 60 20 30 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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