654
FXUS64 KFWD 040648
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
148 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A FEW STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
- MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST EVENING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT DRY
WEATHER AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES
ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE BIG COUNTRY INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY, VERY HIGH
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH PWATS UP TO 2.4 INCHES ALONG WITH DEEP
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BROAD, WEAK LIFT ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
GIVEN THE NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MINIMAL
CAPE/SHEAR, NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS SOME HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE. THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CAMS INDICATE
MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH JUST
ISOLATED PRECIP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT, SO THE
VAST MAJORITY OF EVENING FIREWORK SHOWS LOOK TO HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ALSO WEAKENING AS A
STRONG H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN
EVOLUTION WILL BRING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES TO THE CWA FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ALBEIT MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND
TODAY WITH FAR LESS COVERAGE ANTICIPATED. ONCE AGAIN, NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO MINIMAL CAPE/SHEAR - AND WITH PWATS ON
A GRADUAL DECLINE EACH DAY, THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE VERY LOW. BY NEXT WEEK, HEIGHTS WILL RISE CONSIDERABLY ALOFT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A DOUBLE-BARREL H5 RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS, WITH ONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND ANOTHER ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. HOWEVER, NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGE CENTERS. THEREFORE WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES HEAT UP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MID/UPPER 90S AND
POSSIBLY SOME LOW 100S FOR MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE WEEK. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES NEAR
OR OVER 105 POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, AND HEAT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH NO POPS ARE
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK, 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY DUE TO
THE CONTINUED INVERTED TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE STATE.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AT D10
AIRPORTS BEFORE MVFR CIGS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 07-09Z
THROUGH 15Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS DURING THIS TIME,
BUT CHANCE IS TOO UNLIKELY TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 15Z, WITH -SHRA EXPECTED
TO IMPACT D10 AIRPORTS FROM 21-01Z. FOR ACT, IFR CIGS WILL AFFECT
THE AIRPORT EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND SHRA
FROM 09-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WITH ADDITIONAL -SHRA AND LOW CHANCE
OF -TSRA FROM 15- 00Z. ALL AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 85 75 91 75 94 / 50 10 10 10 20
WACO 85 74 89 72 92 / 50 20 20 5 10
PARIS 87 72 92 73 93 / 30 5 5 5 10
DENTON 86 73 90 73 92 / 50 20 10 10 20
MCKINNEY 86 74 91 74 93 / 40 10 5 5 20
DALLAS 87 74 93 76 94 / 40 10 10 5 20
TERRELL 87 73 92 73 94 / 30 10 5 5 10
CORSICANA 89 74 93 74 94 / 30 10 5 5 10
TEMPLE 85 72 89 71 93 / 50 20 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 83 73 88 72 91 / 70 30 30 10 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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