603
FXUS64 KFWD 041044
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
544 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A FEW STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
- MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST EVENING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT DRY
WEATHER AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 148 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025/
/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES
ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE BIG COUNTRY INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY, VERY HIGH
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH PWATS UP TO 2.4 INCHES ALONG WITH DEEP
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BROAD, WEAK LIFT ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
GIVEN THE NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MINIMAL
CAPE/SHEAR, NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS SOME HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE. THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CAMS INDICATE
MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH JUST
ISOLATED PRECIP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT, SO THE
VAST MAJORITY OF EVENING FIREWORK SHOWS LOOK TO HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 148 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025/
/SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ALSO WEAKENING AS A
STRONG H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN
EVOLUTION WILL BRING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES TO THE CWA FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ALBEIT MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND
TODAY WITH FAR LESS COVERAGE ANTICIPATED. ONCE AGAIN, NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO MINIMAL CAPE/SHEAR - AND WITH PWATS ON
A GRADUAL DECLINE EACH DAY, THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE VERY LOW. BY NEXT WEEK, HEIGHTS WILL RISE CONSIDERABLY ALOFT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A DOUBLE-BARREL H5 RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS, WITH ONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND ANOTHER ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. HOWEVER, NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGE CENTERS. THEREFORE WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES HEAT UP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MID/UPPER 90S AND
POSSIBLY SOME LOW 100S FOR MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE WEEK. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES NEAR
OR OVER 105 POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, AND HEAT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH NO POPS ARE
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK, 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY DUE TO
THE CONTINUED INVERTED TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE STATE.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS D10 AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPO IFR AT GKY, WHILE ACT IS SEEING IFR/LIFR CIGS. ALL OF THESE
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED AT D10 AIRPORTS AND MVFR CIGS AT ACT THEREAFTER. LATEST
THINKING BASED ON CAMS SUCH AS THE HRRR IS MAJORITY OF SHRA/TSRA
WILL STAY SOUTH OF METROPLEX AIRPORTS TODAY AND WILL JUST MENTION
VCSH THROUGH 03Z, WHILE NUMEROUS -SHRA IMPACT ACT THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL
AIRPORTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 85 75 91 75 94 / 50 10 10 10 20
WACO 85 74 89 72 92 / 50 20 20 5 10
PARIS 87 72 92 73 93 / 30 5 5 5 10
DENTON 86 73 90 73 92 / 50 20 10 10 20
MCKINNEY 86 74 91 74 93 / 40 10 5 5 20
DALLAS 87 74 93 76 94 / 40 10 10 5 20
TERRELL 87 73 92 73 94 / 30 10 5 5 10
CORSICANA 89 74 93 74 94 / 30 10 5 5 10
TEMPLE 85 72 89 71 93 / 50 20 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 83 73 88 72 91 / 70 30 30 10 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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