119
FXUS64 KFWD 042349
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
649 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT DRY WEATHER
AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD TROPICAL SHOWERS GENERALLY
ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING WITH A NOTABLE SWIRL IN THE
REFLECTIVITY WEST OF HILLSBORO. THIS IS LIKELY A REMNANT MCV FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION AND MAY CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
RENEWED TROPICAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING, ALTHOUGH THIS
REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN GIVEN A NOTABLE LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
NONETHELESS, A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH AN AXIS OF
2-2.25" PWS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WEAK ASCENT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY MORNING AS HEATING COMMENCES. FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT, WE'VE ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM AND TO
THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV. OTHERWISE,
PERIODIC CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DUNN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN PORTIONS
OF TEXAS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS. A MID-LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ATOP CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WEAK ASCENT WITHIN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL AID IN INCREASED CONVECTION
COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT EVERYONE WILL OBSERVE RAIN TODAY DUE TO
THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY. FOR THOSE THAT END UP UNDER
OR NEAR A STORM TODAY - WIND SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LACKLUSTER, BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS
~ 2.3" AND LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN IN MORE DEVELOPED CELLS. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS
MOST PERTINENT FOR OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, MAINLY ACROSS MILLS AND
LAMPASAS COUNTIES WHERE 2-3.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE
LAST 24 OR SO HOURS. FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAKE SURE TO STAY WEATHER AWARE AS EVEN NEARBY STORMS
COULD IMPACT YOUR LOCATION. BE VIGILANT IF OUT ON THE WATER TODAY
- GUSTY, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS MAY MAKE BOATING AND OTHER WATER
ACTIVITIES HAZARDOUS, EVEN IF A STORM IS NOT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
REGARDING TONIGHT'S RAIN CHANCES, COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL WANE
OVER THIS EVENING, WITH MOST ACTIVITY DISSIPATING AROUND 9-10 PM.
HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF I-35, WHICH MAY IMPACT LATER
FIREWORKS SHOWS. TOMORROW, EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF I-35, WITH GUSTY WINDS. LIGHTNING, AND
BRIEF, HEAVY RAIN ALL POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE LOW 80S OUT WEST TO LOW 90S IN THE EAST DUE TO CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLED AIR.
PRATER
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025/
/SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUALLY DECREASE AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, A
WESTWARD MOVING INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES TO LINGER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY DOMINATE OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK,
WITH PROBABILITIES OF 100+ DEGREE HIGHS BETWEEN 30-60%. HEAT
INDICES WILL ALSO RISE, WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON AFTER WEDNESDAY. A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA COULD
REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND HEAT HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED WHEN WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. CONTINUE TO KEEP UPDATED WITH
THE FORECAST AS WE GET MORE DETAILS!
PRATER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS THIS EVENING WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DECREASING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE'LL BE WATCHING A
LITTLE CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX WHICH MAY
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE EVENING, BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MAJOR
AIRPORTS.
OTHERWISE, INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS IN AND AROUND AREAS OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION. VFR
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE DO
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE REGION, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN TODAY.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 74 88 75 93 76 / 40 20 10 20 5
WACO 72 85 71 89 72 / 40 20 10 10 5
PARIS 72 91 72 93 73 / 30 5 5 10 5
DENTON 72 88 72 92 73 / 40 20 10 20 5
MCKINNEY 74 90 73 93 73 / 30 10 5 10 5
DALLAS 74 89 74 93 75 / 40 10 10 10 5
TERRELL 73 91 72 93 73 / 40 10 5 10 5
CORSICANA 74 91 73 94 74 / 40 10 5 10 5
TEMPLE 72 86 70 91 71 / 40 30 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS 72 87 71 90 71 / 30 30 20 30 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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