665
FXUS64 KFWD 051057
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
557 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AGAIN TODAY.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLOODING IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS, WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES IS LIKELY. AREAS
IN THE FLOOD WATCH HAVE A 10% CHANCE OF TOTALS AS HIGH AS 4-6
INCHES.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT DRY
WEATHER AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MCV CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS BURNET
COUNTY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND THE
SYSTEM. EWX REPORTS UP TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN BURNET
COUNTY THIS MORNING, WHILE IN OUR CWA SOUTHEASTERN LAMPASAS COUNTY
HAS SEEN UP TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. HRRR HAS BEEN INSISTENT
THAT THE MCV WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND PULL THE HEAVIER RAIN INTO
THE FLOOD WATCH AREA, BUT THIS HAS NOT YET OCCURRED AND THE MCV
HAS ACTUALLY CONTINUED TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD. HOWEVER, SHOULD
THE SYSTEM START A NORTHWARD TREND, FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA THIS MORNING. THE FLOOD
WATCH MAY ALSO NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD A ROW OF COUNTIES
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING. PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF
6-10 INCHES IN PARTS OF LAMPASAS/CORYELL COUNTIES TODAY, BUT SUCH
EXTREME TOTALS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE MCV
TRACK. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES.
SHAMBURGER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS LIGHT RAIN STRETCHING FROM JACKSBORO
SOUTHWARD TO CAMERON. MUCH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WILLIAMSON, BURNET, AND TRAVIS
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK UPPER
TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS YESTERDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IN
CENTRAL TEXAS, BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING.
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 2.34 INCHES - WHICH IS NEARLY
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN SOME FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES DUE TO A 20-25 KT
SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ AND THE REMNANT MCV FROM YESTERDAY'S HISTORIC
FLOODING TO OUR SOUTHWEST, THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR SLOW-MOVING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY TO PRODUCE FLOODING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHICH HAVE RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A SMALL FLOOD WATCH FOR
BELL, CORYELL AND LAMPASAS COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER
SIDE FOR FLOODING GIVEN THE MAIN FLOOD FOCUS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
TO OUR SOUTH, BUT GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ECMWF EFI SHOWING QPF IN
THE 90TH-95TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THESE COUNTIES AND PWATS ABOVE THE
DAILY CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX CERTAINLY WARRANTS CONCERN. 00Z MODELS
AND CAMS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY, BUT
IN GENERAL ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS MOST LIKELY FOR THE
FLOOD WATCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS POSSIBLY REACHING 5
INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD
ALSO OCCUR IN OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS TODAY, BUT
THOSE AREAS HAVE SEEN LESS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 212 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025/
/SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN TO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY
WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AND SHIFT WESTWARD AS A STRONG UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST AND A ROBUST H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AND MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER
FURTHER BY MONDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO POPS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
BROAD UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. HOWEVER,
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A BREAK IN THE UPPER
RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEK, SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE
HEAT AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEK THANKS TO THE
H5 RIDGE ALOFT, WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY SOME
100S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH,
HEAT INDICES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 100S WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
105+ READINGS POSSIBLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE CWA.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THIS MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT SHRA WILL IMPACT ACT BUT
JUST VCSH IS ANTICIPATED AT D10 AIRPORTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
CIGS IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 12 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING TODAY. EVEN IF ACTIVATION IS
NOT LOCALLY REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 87 75 91 76 93 / 50 10 20 5 10
WACO 84 72 89 72 91 / 50 10 10 5 10
PARIS 92 72 92 73 93 / 5 5 10 5 20
DENTON 88 72 90 73 93 / 40 10 20 5 20
MCKINNEY 89 73 92 74 93 / 40 10 20 5 20
DALLAS 88 74 91 75 94 / 50 10 10 5 10
TERRELL 91 73 92 72 94 / 30 5 10 5 10
CORSICANA 90 73 93 74 94 / 30 10 10 5 10
TEMPLE 83 70 90 72 92 / 60 20 10 5 10
MINERAL WELLS 85 72 88 72 92 / 40 20 30 5 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ156>158.
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