097
FXUS64 KFWD 051757
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1257 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLOODING IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS, WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW SPOTS. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
OUR AREA.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT DRY
WEATHER AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ON-AND-OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE DECAYING MCV LINGERS
SOUTH OF OUR CWA IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM
FWD AND RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2.4
INCHES. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT-TO-MODERATE SHOWERS INCLUDING A FEW STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. BRIEF POCKETS OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA, BUT THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AS WE'VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS, MOST PRECIP
WILL END AROUND SUNSET BUT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL TX COULD
SEE SOME LINGERING RAIN OVERNIGHT.
A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD, COINCIDING WITH AN AREA OF DECENT MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES (30-50%) TO SEE RAIN DURING THE DAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS THAT HAVE SEEN MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF RAIN IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
END IN THE EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/NEXT WEEK/
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD FEATURES SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. THOSE CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO
AREAS ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE NORTHWEST BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SUMMER HEAT WILL RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND BUILDS EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY MID-WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
98-105 RANGE.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...LOW CEILINGS, SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR (BKN040-050). THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHTNING REMAINS LOW, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL
STRIKE OR TWO (MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS). OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST UP TO 12 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-35
MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS
WELL.
SANCHEZ
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING TODAY. EVEN IF ACTIVATION IS
NOT LOCALLY REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 87 75 89 76 92 / 40 20 30 5 10
WACO 83 73 88 74 90 / 70 20 20 5 5
PARIS 92 72 92 72 93 / 5 5 10 0 20
DENTON 87 73 89 73 92 / 30 20 30 5 20
MCKINNEY 88 74 90 74 93 / 30 10 30 5 20
DALLAS 88 75 90 76 93 / 30 20 30 5 10
TERRELL 89 73 92 73 93 / 20 10 10 0 10
CORSICANA 88 74 93 75 93 / 30 10 10 0 5
TEMPLE 83 72 89 72 91 / 70 30 20 5 10
MINERAL WELLS 86 74 87 72 90 / 40 30 40 10 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ143-144-156>159.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page