327  
FXUS64 KFWD 081038  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
538 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS AND  
EAST TEXAS TODAY. TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT  
RELATED ILLNESSES.  
 
- SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND  
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO PARTS OF  
CENTRAL TEXAS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
/ISSUED 111 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025/  
/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
IT'S A TYPICAL AUGUST SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS  
AT THIS HOUR WITH QUIET, WARM, AND HUMID CONDITIONS. LATEST  
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS  
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN OUR WEST TO THE MID 70S IN OUR EAST.  
CONTINUED HOT, HUMID, AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS  
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO  
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN  
THROUGH THE DAY WITH HEIGHTS ACTUALLY FALLING ALOFT OVER NORTH  
AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WHICH NORMALLY WOULD SUGGEST A COOLER DAY  
VERSUS YESTERDAY. DESPITE THIS, 00Z MODEL SUITE UNANIMOUSLY SHOWS  
850MB TEMPS RISING 1-3 DEGREES AREAWIDE ALONG WITH AMPLE  
SUNSHINE. THEREFORE, TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE  
WEEK, AS WELL AS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S  
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, AROUND 100 IN THE METROPLEX AND NORTHEAST  
TEXAS, AND THE MID 100S IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. PWATS AND DEWPOINTS  
WILL ALSO RISE SLIGHTLY TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF,  
SO THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX  
READINGS UP INTO THE 105-110 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. MADE NO  
CHANGES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z.  
 
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, MODELS SHOW THE H5 RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO  
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN TOMORROW, WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW  
PRESSURE SLIDING WESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS SHOULD  
HELP KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES AREAWIDE ON  
SATURDAY. EVEN SO, THE HEAT/HUMIDITY COMBO WILL LIKELY WARRANT AN  
EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PARTS  
OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE  
A LOOK AT THE LATEST DATA BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL DECISION ON  
ANY EXTENSION.  
 
SHAMBURGER  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
/ISSUED 111 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025/  
/SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
THE H5 RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFF TO THE WEST  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES  
OVER THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES LOOK  
TO DIP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL  
STILL KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER, BUT  
IT WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS HOT THAN IT COULD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR  
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NO 100S TO BE SEEN.  
THE WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME SEABREEZE  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE A RUN FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES  
EACH DAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. AFTER THE CURRENT  
FORECAST PERIOD, MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RESTRENGTHEN  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE THE TROPICS BEGIN TO BECOME MORE  
ACTIVE - WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH MID-AUGUST CLIMATOLOGY.  
 
SHAMBURGER  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
/NEW/  
/12Z TAFS/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID LEVEL  
CLOUDS AROUND 15K FT AND SOUTH WINDS UP TO 12 KNOTS.  
 
SHAMBURGER  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 100 80 98 79 97 / 0 0 0 0 5  
WACO 98 77 96 76 95 / 0 0 0 0 5  
PARIS 99 76 97 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 5  
DENTON 102 77 100 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 0  
MCKINNEY 100 77 98 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 5  
DALLAS 102 80 100 79 97 / 0 0 0 0 5  
TERRELL 100 76 98 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 5  
CORSICANA 99 77 98 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 5  
TEMPLE 99 75 97 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 10  
MINERAL WELLS 103 76 101 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-  
115>123-131>135-146>148-162.  
 
 
 
 
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