265
FXUS64 KFWD 090704
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
204 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS AND
EAST TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY AND HOTTER CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR ONGOING HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW
MEXICO DOMINATES WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER,
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GULF APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR YESTERDAY'S READINGS OR KNOCK THEM DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO. STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE HOT AND HUMID WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S, AND HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL PEAK IN
THE 102-109 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND EAST
TEXAS. THEREFORE HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING HEAT
ADVISORY.
TODAY LOOKS TO BE OUR LAST NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES WESTWARD INTO
THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME MORE
AND KEEP MAX HEAT INDICES NEAR OR BELOW 105. A FEW COUNTIES COULD
RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT CURRENTLY DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO NEED ANOTHER
ADVISORY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THANKS TO A
COMBINATION OF THE SEABREEZE AND UPPER LOW, BUT CURRENT COVERAGE
LOOKS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND DID NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A PATTERN CHANGE TAKES HOLD FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD, AND THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES DIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
STATE. THIS CHANGE WILL HELP CONTINUE OUR DOWNWARD TEMPERATURE
SLIDE AS WELL AS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. APPEARS
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA BOTH
FROM AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE IN OUR SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS CONVECTION
MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA IN OUR NORTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DON'T SHOW ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD, BUT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH MLCAPE UP TO
1500 J/KG EACH DAY COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG
DOWNBURST/MICROBURSTS. BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, A NEW
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND EXTENDS
WESTWARD OVER TEXAS, WHICH SHOULD END OUR RAIN CHANCES PLUS HEAT
US BACK UP TO TYPICAL AUGUST LEVELS.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH JUST A FEW LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS UP TO
AROUND 12 KNOTS.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 98 79 97 79 95 / 0 0 0 0 20
WACO 97 76 95 76 94 / 0 0 0 5 20
PARIS 98 76 95 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 20
DENTON 99 77 99 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 20
MCKINNEY 99 77 97 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 20
DALLAS 99 79 98 79 97 / 0 0 0 0 20
TERRELL 98 75 97 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 30
CORSICANA 99 76 97 76 95 / 0 5 5 0 30
TEMPLE 98 74 96 74 95 / 0 0 0 5 30
MINERAL WELLS 101 75 99 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-146>148-162.
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