505  
FXUS64 KFWD 091748  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS AND  
EAST TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES  
WILL PREVAIL STARTING SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S.  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY  
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE THE  
REST OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
/NEW/  
/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN  
TODAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A HEAT  
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT, AND AFTERNOON HEAT  
INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105-108 DEGREES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.  
IN ADDITION, LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD  
APPROACH 103 DEGREES IN THEIR AMBIENT TEMPERATURE READINGS LATER  
THIS AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A BREEZE TODAY  
THAT CAN PROVIDE SOME RELIEF AT TIMES, BUT ANYONE PARTAKING IN  
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON NEEDS TO REMAIN MINDFUL OF HEAT  
RELATED ILLNESS SYMPTOMS.  
 
THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY AS HEAT INDEX  
VALUES FALL BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE  
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS A  
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN  
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES (MOSTLY MID 90S WITH A FEW  
LOCATIONS AROUND 100 DEGREES), BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY DUE TO  
INCREASING MOISTURE. ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH HEAT INDEX  
VALUES OF 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE COVERAGE IS NOT  
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY.  
 
SEABREEZE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH OUR SOUTHEASTERN  
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL ONLY CARRY  
SILENT 10 POPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A  
COMPLEX OF STORMS IN OKLAHOMA MAY TRY TO MOVE TOWARDS THE RED  
RIVER, OR SEND A BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS OUR AREA. HAVE KEPT THE  
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CERTAINTY THE COMPLEX WILL  
APPROACH OUR AREA, BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH  
TOMORROW.  
 
JLDUNN  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
/NEW/  
/MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/  
 
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH THROUGH  
THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS, IT WILL GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, BUT  
WILL ALSO CARRY LOW POPS OVERNIGHT FOR ANY LINGERING CONVECTION. A  
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER MONDAY  
OR MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SOME  
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT  
TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS ARE EXPECTED: BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL,  
GUSTY WINDS, POSSIBLE STRONGER DOWNBURSTS, AND LIGHTNING (THAT  
COULD START GRASSFIRES). MOISTURE CONTENT/PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR  
NORMAL, BUT MAY CREEP UP INTO THE 75TH PERCENTILE ON TUESDAY. THE  
OVERALL THREAT FOR FLOODING IS LOW, BUT MINOR OR STREET FLOODING  
MAY OCCUR WHERE A STORM IS SLOW MOVING.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD BACK AFTER THE DISTURBANCE  
DEPARTS THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 90S THROUGH AT  
LEAST FRIDAY, AND DAILY AFTERNOON POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST  
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL MAKE  
A RETURN AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO CREEP BACK UP.  
 
JLDUNN  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
/NEW/  
/18Z TAF/  
 
NO CHANGE IS NEEDED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL  
WITH GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 7-12 KTS AND  
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.  
 
JLDUNN  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 99 79 97 79 96 / 0 0 0 10 20  
WACO 97 76 95 75 94 / 0 0 5 10 20  
PARIS 98 74 96 74 94 / 0 0 0 10 20  
DENTON 101 77 99 76 97 / 0 0 0 10 20  
MCKINNEY 99 76 97 76 95 / 0 0 0 10 20  
DALLAS 100 79 99 79 97 / 0 0 0 10 20  
TERRELL 99 74 97 75 94 / 0 0 0 10 20  
CORSICANA 99 76 97 76 96 / 5 5 5 10 20  
TEMPLE 98 74 95 74 94 / 0 0 5 10 20  
MINERAL WELLS 101 75 100 73 97 / 0 0 0 10 20  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-  
115>123-131>135-146>148-162.  
 

 
 

 
 
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