789
FXUS64 KFWD 100550
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COMMENCE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, WITH A WEAK H5 LOW
MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE STATE WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS CHANGE WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD MORE THAN WE HAVE SEEN WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S TO AROUND 100 - WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR - AS WELL AS BRING US LOW RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN TWO ZONES - OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES
WHICH WILL SEE SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY, AND OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP/SPREAD SOUTHWARD
OUT OF OKLAHOMA. THE MIDDLE OF OUR FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING THE
METROPLEX, LOOKS TO STAY IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS OF HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND SHOULD SEE LESS COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIP.
FOR TODAY, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS. HOWEVER, COVERAGE SHOULD BE
QUITE LOW SO HAVE ONLY INSERTED A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE TOMORROW THEN
PEAK ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, BEFORE
DECREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EACH DAY SHOW
INVERTED-V TYPE PROFILES WITH MLCAPE AND DCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG
ALONG WITH FAIRLY HIGH PWATS NEAR THE 2 INCH MARK. ALTHOUGH
NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED, GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT A FEW
STORMS COULD GET ROBUST EACH DAY WITH STRONG DOWNBURST/MICROBURST
WINDS.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AGAIN FROM LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS A LARGE H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO TEXAS. 00Z MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OR ITS WESTERN EXTENT, AND SUBSEQUENTLY
DO NOT HEAT US BACK UP AS PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWED WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL. THIS ALSO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE
IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY, MAINLY ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH
FEW/SCT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO
12 KNOTS.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 96 77 95 77 / 0 10 10 30 10
WACO 75 94 75 95 76 / 0 10 10 30 10
PARIS 74 94 73 94 73 / 0 10 5 30 10
DENTON 75 97 74 95 74 / 0 10 10 30 10
MCKINNEY 76 96 74 95 75 / 0 10 5 30 10
DALLAS 79 97 78 97 78 / 0 10 10 30 10
TERRELL 74 95 73 95 74 / 0 20 5 30 10
CORSICANA 76 96 75 96 75 / 0 20 5 30 5
TEMPLE 74 95 73 95 74 / 0 10 10 30 10
MINERAL WELLS 73 97 72 95 72 / 0 10 20 40 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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