689
FXUS64 KFWD 101804
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
104 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES, WHILE HOT, WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY/
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A WESTWARD DRIFTING
EASTERLY WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS, AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE
MODEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAD BEEN HOLDING SWAY OVER OUR AREA
WILL DIMINISH IN SIZE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
YIELDING DECREASED SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHT THICKNESSES, AND THUS
SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, TODAY'S HIGHS
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS AREAWIDE THAT WE EXPERIENCE ALL
WEEK.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TWO MID LEVEL TROUGHS TO OUR NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
MONDAY, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW POPS IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES, CLOSER TO THE EASTERLY WAVE AND LIKELY
SEABREEZE-INDUCED CONVERGENCE, AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES, WHICH MAY BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AREAL COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED IN BOTH REGIONS.
BRADSHAW
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN CONSISTING OF THE EASTERLY WAVE TO OUR
IMMEDIATE EAST AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
STATES WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SINGLE UNIFIED AREA OF
WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. COVERAGE WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, OWING TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
FORCING, BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREAS THAT DO EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, OWING TO THE WEAKER HEIGHTS,
PARTIAL CLOUD COVER, AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD THROUGH SUNDAY, THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD WILL BECOME LARGELY SUPPLANTED BY A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE NOSING WESTWARD INTO TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DISAGREEMENTS EXIST BETWEEN THE LONGER-RANGE MODELS IN
TERMS OF THE EVOLUTION OF SMALLER SCALE WAVES WHICH MAY BE
EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN THE HEIGHT
FIELDS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY DIMINISH THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION; IT SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN AN UPWARD TICK
IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO EVADE
THE CENTURY MARK THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER.
BRADSHAW
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY, AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A MODEST SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND REGIME
WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY, WITH MOST SPEEDS
AVERAGING 8 TO 13 KNOTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
BRADSHAW
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 97 78 96 76 95 / 0 0 5 5 20
WACO 95 75 94 75 94 / 0 0 5 10 20
PARIS 96 74 94 73 94 / 0 0 10 5 20
DENTON 99 75 97 74 95 / 0 0 10 5 30
MCKINNEY 97 75 96 74 94 / 0 0 5 5 20
DALLAS 99 79 98 78 96 / 0 0 5 5 30
TERRELL 97 74 95 73 94 / 0 0 10 5 30
CORSICANA 97 76 96 76 96 / 0 0 10 5 20
TEMPLE 96 73 95 73 95 / 0 0 10 10 30
MINERAL WELLS 100 73 98 72 96 / 0 0 10 10 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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