568  
FXUS64 KFWD 102319  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
619 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  
 
- LOW STORM CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS EACH  
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
/NEW/  
UPDATE:  
 
THE ONLY CHANGES NEEDED IN THE SHORT TERM WERE TO ADD SOME LOW  
POPS ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND FAR EAST  
TEXAS HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. COVERAGE  
OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 10% OR LESS THROUGH THE  
EVENING WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.  
 
DUNN  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:  
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A WESTWARD DRIFTING  
EASTERLY WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS, AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL  
TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE  
MODEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAD BEEN HOLDING SWAY OVER OUR AREA  
WILL DIMINISH IN SIZE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,  
YIELDING DECREASED SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHT THICKNESSES, AND THUS  
SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, TODAY'S HIGHS  
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS AREAWIDE THAT WE EXPERIENCE ALL  
WEEK.  
 
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TWO MID LEVEL TROUGHS TO OUR NORTHWEST  
AND SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER  
MONDAY, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW POPS IN  
THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES, CLOSER TO THE EASTERLY WAVE AND LIKELY  
SEABREEZE-INDUCED CONVERGENCE, AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHWEST  
COUNTIES, WHICH MAY BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF  
THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AREAL COVERAGE AND  
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED IN BOTH REGIONS.  
 
BRADSHAW  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
/ISSUED 104 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025/  
/TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN CONSISTING OF THE EASTERLY WAVE TO OUR  
IMMEDIATE EAST AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS  
STATES WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SINGLE UNIFIED AREA OF  
WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM  
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF  
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. COVERAGE WILL  
NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, OWING TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE  
FORCING, BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME  
ISOLATED BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREAS THAT DO EXPERIENCE  
THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, OWING TO THE WEAKER HEIGHTS,  
PARTIAL CLOUD COVER, AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN AT  
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD THROUGH SUNDAY, THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED  
WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD WILL BECOME LARGELY SUPPLANTED BY A  
STRENGTHENING RIDGE NOSING WESTWARD INTO TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST  
STATES. DISAGREEMENTS EXIST BETWEEN THE LONGER-RANGE MODELS IN  
TERMS OF THE EVOLUTION OF SMALLER SCALE WAVES WHICH MAY BE  
EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER,  
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN THE HEIGHT  
FIELDS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY DIMINISH THE OPPORTUNITY FOR  
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION; IT SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN AN UPWARD TICK  
IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO EVADE  
THE CENTURY MARK THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER.  
 
BRADSHAW  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
/NEW/  
/00Z TAFS/  
 
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY SOUTH FLOW  
AROUND 10 KT. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY BETWEEN 140 AND 190 DEGREES  
THROUGH MONDAY WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
WE'LL BE WATCHING STORM CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON  
MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF D10 AND ALSO MONITORING THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT STORMS TO APPROACH FROM THE  
NORTHWEST INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
DUNN  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 96 76 95 77 / 0 5 5 20 10  
WACO 75 94 75 94 75 / 0 5 5 20 10  
PARIS 74 94 73 94 73 / 10 10 5 20 5  
DENTON 75 97 74 95 74 / 0 5 5 30 10  
MCKINNEY 75 96 74 94 74 / 0 5 0 20 10  
DALLAS 79 98 78 96 78 / 0 5 0 30 10  
TERRELL 74 95 73 94 74 / 10 5 5 30 5  
CORSICANA 76 96 76 96 76 / 0 10 5 20 5  
TEMPLE 73 95 73 95 73 / 0 10 10 30 10  
MINERAL WELLS 73 98 72 96 72 / 0 5 5 30 10  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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